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Trading Diary
January 14, 2004

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .

The Dow Industrial Average rallied to close at 10538, headed for a re-test of resistance at 10600. Low volume signals that a breakout is unlikely.
The intermediate trend is up. Consolidation in a narrow range below 10600 is a bullish sign, while a fall below 10367 would be bearish.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 will signal reversal.


The Nasdaq Composite closed at 2111, consolidating at the upper border of resistance, a bullish sign. Strong volume and a narrow range signal increased selling and buying pressure. 
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.


The S&P 500 rallied to close at 1130. The 3-day correction on lower volume signals a healthy up-trend. 
The intermediate trend is up. The next resistance level is at 1175.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above the high of 1132 (last Thursday's high). Bearish below 1115 (Tuesday's low).

The primary trend is up. A fall below 1000 will signal reversal.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1115.
Long-term: Bullish above 1000.


The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator eased slightly to 85.31% (January 14).

Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes fell to 3.986%, a bearish sign.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A close below 3.93% will signal reversal - a bearish sign for stocks.

New York (16.43): Spot gold fell to $419.80.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect support at 415.

ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries continues to consolidate between 3320 and 3293, rallying to 3314 but on lower volume.

The intermediate trend is up. Consolidation in a narrow range below 3320 is a bullish sign, while a fall below 3293 would signal a re-test of support at 3160.
MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below.
Short-term: Bullish above 3320. Bearish below 3293.

In the longer-term, the All Ords has consolidated between 3160 and 3320 after a fast up-trend. A break through resistance will signal a re-test of major resistance at 3425 to 3440. 
The primary trend is up but will reverse if there is a fall below support at 3160 (Oct 1 low). Twiggs Money Flow (100) has leveled out but is still bearish after a large divergence.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3293.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.

Ten Network [TEN]
Last covered on October 13, 2003
TEN broke through the major 2.74 resistance level after a strong rally. Since then price has consolidated in a narrow range between 2.60 and 2.90, normally a bullish sign at resistance. Twiggs Money Flow (100), however, is falling, signaling distribution.

The consolidation pattern appears to take the form of a triangle. Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) has made a bearish break below the previous support level, ahead of price.

Bear in mind that TEN went ex-dividend on January 8, a dividend of 15 cents. This may throw out support and resistance levels: adjusted levels are drawn to the right of the chart.

The latest bar traded within the range of Tuesday's strong downward candle, exhibiting a narrow range and low volume. A follow-through below Tuesday's low will be a bear signal.

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Colin Twiggs

I know that fear is the only thing that prohibits you from being the very best you can be.
Now when does a person become fearless? You never know! You just take one step at a time..........

It took me all them years when I used to panic to come to the point of realizing that,
as a professional fighter, when I get in the ring, I'm in control.
And once I've realized I'm in control, he can't hurt me unless I allow him to hurt me.

~ Evander Holyfield
(talking about the day trading of course)

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