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Trading Diary
January 13, 2004
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as
investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at
Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow Industrial Average broke through initial
support at Monday's low, closing at 10427 on low
volume.
A follow-through like this normally heralds a change in the intermediate trend and we are likely to see a re-test of support at 10000.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 will signal reversal.
A follow-through like this normally heralds a change in the intermediate trend and we are likely to see a re-test of support at 10000.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 will signal reversal.
The Nasdaq Composite failed to hold on to gains
above 2100, retreating to close at 2096. The weak close and
strong volume signal buying support. We are likely to see either
a consolidation above 2080 or a correction back to support at
2000.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.
The S&P 500 has so far failed to
follow-through on Friday's downward candle, rallying to close at
1121. The weak close and higher volume signal buying
support.
The intermediate trend is up.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above the high of 1132 (Thursday's high). Bearish below 1120 (Monday's low).
The intermediate trend is up.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above the high of 1132 (Thursday's high). Bearish below 1120 (Monday's low).
The primary trend is up. A fall below 1000 will
signal reversal.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1120.
Long-term: Bullish above 1000.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1120.
Long-term: Bullish above 1000.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator increased
slightly to 85.34% (January 13).
Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes is down at 4.02%.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A close below 3.93% will signal reversal.
The yield on 10-year treasury notes is down at 4.02%.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A close below 3.93% will signal reversal.
Gold
New York (00.45): Spot gold is up at $424.40.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect support at 400 and 415.
New York (00.45): Spot gold is up at $424.40.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect support at 400 and 415.
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries is consolidating below resistance at 3320.
Sellers ended an early rally, driving the index down to 3300 on
strong volume.
The intermediate trend is up. Consolidation between 3320 and 3293
will be a bullish sign, while a fall below 3293 will likely
result in a re-test of support at 3160.
MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below.
Short-term: Bullish above 3320. Bearish below 3293.
MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below.
Short-term: Bullish above 3320. Bearish below 3293.
In the longer-term, the All Ords has consolidated between 3160
and 3320 after a fast up-trend. A break through resistance will
signal a re-test of previous highs at 3425 and 3440. The primary
trend is up but will reverse if there is a fall below support at
3160 (Oct 1 low). Twiggs Money Flow (100) has leveled out
but is still bearish after a large divergence.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3320. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3320. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.
Australian Stock Exchange [ASX]
Last covered on November 11, 2003.
ASX has pulled back to test support at 16.00 after a fast up-trend following the break above resistance at 14.00. Twiggs Money Flow (100) has turned below the previous trough; a bearish sign.
Last covered on November 11, 2003.
ASX has pulled back to test support at 16.00 after a fast up-trend following the break above resistance at 14.00. Twiggs Money Flow (100) has turned below the previous trough; a bearish sign.
The intermediate trend has turned down, with a lower high (Jan 7)
followed by a sharp fall to test support at 16.00. Relative
Strength (price ratio: xao) has made a bearish break below the
previous support level, ahead of price.
If price respects support at 16.00, this will signal continuation
of the fast up-trend. Take care to distinguish between a short
counter-trend, or consolidation, above a support level, and a
reversal of the intermediate trend.
Judging by the speed of the correction, we may well see a re-test of the major support level at 15.00, presenting long-term bull opportunities if support holds.
Judging by the speed of the correction, we may well see a re-test of the major support level at 15.00, presenting long-term bull opportunities if support holds.
About
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the
archives.
Colin Twiggs
If you don't know who you are,
the stock market is an expensive place to find out.
~ George Goodman.
the stock market is an expensive place to find out.
~ George Goodman.
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Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.