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Trading Diary
January 13, 2004

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .

The Dow Industrial Average broke through initial support at Monday's low, closing at 10427 on low volume. 
A follow-through like this normally heralds a change in the intermediate trend and we are likely to see a re-test of support at 10000.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 will signal reversal.


The Nasdaq Composite failed to hold on to gains above 2100, retreating to close at 2096. The weak close and strong volume signal buying support. We are likely to see either a consolidation above 2080 or a correction back to support at 2000.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.


The S&P 500 has so far failed to follow-through on Friday's downward candle, rallying to close at 1121. The weak close and higher volume signal buying support.
The intermediate trend is up.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above the high of 1132 (Thursday's high). Bearish below 1120 (Monday's low).

The primary trend is up. A fall below 1000 will signal reversal.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1120.
Long-term: Bullish above 1000.


The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator increased slightly to 85.34% (January 13).

Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes is down at 4.02%.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A close below 3.93% will signal reversal.

New York (00.45): Spot gold is up at $424.40.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect support at 400 and 415.

ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries is consolidating below resistance at 3320. Sellers ended an early rally, driving the index down to 3300 on strong volume.

The intermediate trend is up. Consolidation between 3320 and 3293 will be a bullish sign, while a fall below 3293 will likely result in a re-test of support at 3160.
MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below.
Short-term: Bullish above 3320. Bearish below 3293.

In the longer-term, the All Ords has consolidated between 3160 and 3320 after a fast up-trend. A break through resistance will signal a re-test of previous highs at 3425 and 3440. The primary trend is up but will reverse if there is a fall below support at 3160 (Oct 1 low). Twiggs Money Flow (100) has leveled out but is still bearish after a large divergence.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3320. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.

Australian Stock Exchange [ASX]
Last covered on November 11, 2003
ASX has pulled back to test support at 16.00 after a fast up-trend following the break above resistance at 14.00. Twiggs Money Flow (100) has turned below the previous trough; a bearish sign.

The intermediate trend has turned down, with a lower high (Jan 7) followed by a sharp fall to test support at 16.00. Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) has made a bearish break below the previous support level, ahead of price.

If price respects support at 16.00, this will signal continuation of the fast up-trend. Take care to distinguish between a short counter-trend, or consolidation, above a support level, and a reversal of the intermediate trend.

Judging by the speed of the correction, we may well see a re-test of the major support level at 15.00, presenting long-term bull opportunities if support holds.

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Colin Twiggs

If you don't know who you are, 
the stock market is an expensive place to find out.

~ George Goodman.

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