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Trading Diary
January 7, 2004

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow Industrial Average eased slightly, closing at 10529. Buying support is still evident with a long tail and higher volume.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 will signal reversal.

 


The Nasdaq Composite rallied 20 points to close at 2077 on strong volume.
The intermediate trend is up. Resistance is at 2060 to 2100.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.


 


The S&P 500 made a false break below yesterday's low before rallying to close strongly at 1126.
The intermediate trend is up. The next resistance level is at 1175.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1124 (Tuesday's high). Bearish below 1118 (Tuesday's low).

The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1124.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.

 


The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator continues to make new highs, reaching 85.26% (January 7).


Credit crunch?
Credit card delinquencies are at a record high of 4.09%. (more)


Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes slipped to 4.24%.
The intermediate trend is uncertain. Support is at 4.00% and resistance at 4.50%.
The primary trend is up.





Gold
New York (23.37): Spot gold is almost unchanged at $420.20.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect support at 415.




ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries retreated to close at 3310 after yesterday's marginal break above resistance [b]. The close half-way down yesterday's strong up candle signals that the market is uncomfortable with higher prices, confirmed by higher volume. Short-term support is at 3310, the high of [a]. A fall below this level will indicate a loss of momentum, but if price respects the new support level, we may see a strong surge as institutional buyers return from their holidays.



MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below.
Short-term: Bullish above today's high of 3325.

The All Ords is below its long-term trendline, signaling weakness. The primary trend is up but will reverse if there is a fall below 3160 (the October 1 low). Twiggs Money Flow (100) has leveled out but is still bearish after a large divergence.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3325. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.





Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the archives.

Colin Twiggs


Humility leads to strength and not to weakness. 
It is the highest form of self-respect
to admit mistakes and to make amends for them. 

~ John (Jay) McCloy.



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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.