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Trading Diary
January 6, 2004
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as
investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at
Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow Industrial Average closed almost
unchanged at 10538 after testing support within yesterday's
strong upward candle. The small doji above a strong upward candle
is a bullish pattern, signaling that the market does not want to
give up yesterday's gains. A rise above today's high will confirm
this, while a fall below the low will signal failure.
The intermediate trend is up. The index is likely to encounter resistance at the March 2002 high of 10600 and either pull back to the long-term trendline or consolidate below the resistance level (a bullish sign).
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is up. The index is likely to encounter resistance at the March 2002 high of 10600 and either pull back to the long-term trendline or consolidate below the resistance level (a bullish sign).
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9600 will signal reversal.
The Nasdaq Composite put in another good rally,
closing up 10 points at 2057 on strong volume.
The intermediate trend is up. The index faces resistance at 2060 to 2100.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is up. The index faces resistance at 2060 to 2100.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.
The S&P 500 closed up slightly at 1123 after
testing support within the range of yesterday's strong upward
candle; a similar bullish pattern to the DJIAA.
The intermediate trend is up. The next resistance level is at 1175.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above the high of 1124 (today's high). Bearish below 1118 (today's low).
The intermediate trend is up. The next resistance level is at 1175.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above the high of 1124 (today's high). Bearish below 1118 (today's low).
The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will
signal reversal.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1124.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1124.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator increased
slightly to 85.12% (January 6).
Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes gapped down to 4.27%.
The intermediate trend is uncertain.
The primary trend is up.
The yield on 10-year treasury notes gapped down to 4.27%.
The intermediate trend is uncertain.
The primary trend is up.
Gold
New York (23.47): Spot gold is at $421.60.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect support at 415.
New York (23.47): Spot gold is at $421.60.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect support at 415.
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries broke through resistance at 3317, closing at
3325 on higher volume. If the short-term pull-back respects the
new 3310 support level, we may see a strong surge as
institutional buyers return from their holidays. January is,
historically, a bullish month.
MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3)
is below.
Short-term: Bullish above 3317.
Short-term: Bullish above 3317.
The All Ords is below its long-term trendline, signaling
weakness. The primary trend is up but will reverse if there is a
fall below 3160 (the October 1 low). Twiggs Money Flow (100) has
leveled out but is still bearish after a large divergence.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3317. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3317. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.
Understanding
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the
archives.
Colin Twiggs
I count him braver who overcomes his desires
than him who conquers his enemies;
for the hardest victory is over self.
~ Aristotle.
than him who conquers his enemies;
for the hardest victory is over self.
~ Aristotle.
US data
US Premium data will be available to free users until 31 March 2004.
Thereafter all free data will be delayed by 18 hours.
US Premium data will be available to free users until 31 March 2004.
Thereafter all free data will be delayed by 18 hours.
Back Issues
You can now view back issues at the Daily Trading Diary Archives.
You can now view back issues at the Daily Trading Diary Archives.
Back Issues
Access the Trading Diary Archives.
Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.