We wish our readers peace and goodwill over Christmas
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Trading Diary
December 12, 2003
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as
investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at
Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow Industrial Average has broken through the key 10000
resistance level, closing up at 10042.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9000 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9000 will signal reversal.
Declining volume on the daily chart raises doubt over the index's
ability to hold above the new 10000 support level.
The Nasdaq Composite failed to make any significant gains on
Friday, closing at 1949 on lower volume.
The intermediate trend is uncertain. A fall below 1880 will complete a double top reversal with a target of 1760: 1880-(2000-1880).
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is uncertain. A fall below 1880 will complete a double top reversal with a target of 1760: 1880-(2000-1880).
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.
The S&P 500 gained 3 points to close at 1074.
The intermediate trend is up. The index has broken above the recent consolidation, a bearish sign, but low volume places doubt over the strength of the rally.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above resistance at 1070. Bearish below 1053 (Wednesday's low).
The intermediate trend is up. The index has broken above the recent consolidation, a bearish sign, but low volume places doubt over the strength of the rally.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above resistance at 1070. Bearish below 1053 (Wednesday's low).
The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will signal
reversal.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1070.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1070.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator recovered
to 81.90% (December 12).
Consumer confidence falls
Preliminary December readings of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 89.6, from 93.7 in November, while economists were expecting a rise to 96. (more)
Preliminary December readings of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 89.6, from 93.7 in November, while economists were expecting a rise to 96. (more)
US Stocks
NYSE, Nasdaq (including OTC BB) and Amex stocks are now available on Incredible Charts.
Stock screens will be added next week.
Adjusted end-of-day charts are accessible from the Securities menu.
The charts are also accessible from the free version until early 2004.
NYSE, Nasdaq (including OTC BB) and Amex stocks are now available on Incredible Charts.
Stock screens will be added next week.
Adjusted end-of-day charts are accessible from the Securities menu.
The charts are also accessible from the free version until early 2004.
Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes appears to be consolidating between 4.0% and 4.5%, closing at 4.24% on Friday.
The intermediate down-trend is weak.
The primary trend is up.
The yield on 10-year treasury notes appears to be consolidating between 4.0% and 4.5%, closing at 4.24% on Friday.
The intermediate down-trend is weak.
The primary trend is up.
The
yield differential is a healthy 3.3% (10-year T-notes
compared to 13-week T-bills).
Gold
New York (13.30): Spot gold closed the week up at $409.20.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect support at 400, resistance at 415.
New York (13.30): Spot gold closed the week up at $409.20.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect support at 400, resistance at 415.
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ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries rallied 26 points to close at 3216. Lower
volume signals a lack of commitment from buyers.
MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3)
is below.
Short-term: Bullish above 3213, Thursday's high. Bearish below 3173 (the December 1 low).
Short-term: Bullish above 3213, Thursday's high. Bearish below 3173 (the December 1 low).
The All Ords is below its long-term trendline, signaling
weakness. The primary trend is up but will reverse if there is a
fall below 3160 (the October 1 low). A fall below 3160 would also
complete a head and shoulders reversal with a target of 3010:
3160-(3310-3160)
Twiggs Money Flow (100) is below its signal line, indicating distribution, after a bearish triple divergence.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3213. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) is below its signal line, indicating distribution, after a bearish triple divergence.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3213. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.
Sector Analysis
The 11 sectors (10 + Property) are in various market stages. Relative Strength (xjo) measures the performance of each sector relative to the overall index.
The 11 sectors (10 + Property) are in various market stages. Relative Strength (xjo) measures the performance of each sector relative to the overall index.
- Energy [XEJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Materials [XMJ] - stage 2 (RS is falling)
- Industrials [XNJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)
- Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 1 (RS is rising)
- Health Care [XHJ] - stage 1 (RS is level)
- Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 3 (RS is rising).
- Financial excl. Property [XXJ] - stage 4** (RS is falling)
- Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 2 (RS is falling)
- Utilities [XUJ] - stage 3 (RS is level)
** Financial-x-Property Trusts [XXJ] formed a narrow line
(or trading range) over the past 5 months. The index broke below
the 3933 support level at [7], signaling a primary trend
reversal, but has subsequently retreated back within the pattern.
This is a weak signal. However, Relative Strength (xjo) is
falling and I will treat the primary trend as downwards
until there is clear evidence to the contrary.
Apologies for the eye-strain. It is the only way that I can fit
the above daily pattern into a single image.
The intermediate trend will reverse up if the index rises above the recent high of 4026.
A rise above 4136 will signal that the primary trend has turned upwards.
The intermediate trend will reverse up if the index rises above the recent high of 4026.
A rise above 4136 will signal that the primary trend has turned upwards.
Sectors: Relative Strength
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) is at a low 19 stocks (compared to 131 on April 11, 2003; and 8 on March 14, 2003). Prominent sectors are:
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) is at a low 19 stocks (compared to 131 on April 11, 2003; and 8 on March 14, 2003). Prominent sectors are:
- Real Estate Investment Trusts (6)
-
Biotechnology
Peptech [PTD] and Novogen [NRT] head the overall list with gains of 24% and 21% over the last month.
Daily Trading Diary
Stocks analyzed during the week were:
Stocks analyzed during the week were:
- Alinta - ALN
- CSL Limited - CSL
- Lion Nathan - LNN
- Caltex - CTX
- Novogen - NRT
- Wattyl - WYL
- Cochlear - COH
Understanding
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the
archives.
Colin Twiggs
......whether or not it is clear to
you,
no doubt the universe is unfolding as it
should.
Therefore be at peace with God,
whatever you conceive Him to be,
and whatever your labors and aspirations,
in the noisy confusion of life keep peace with your
soul.
~ Max Ehrmann: Desiderata
(1927)
Dilution
Adjustments
What are dilution adjustments?
Why does Incredible Charts adjust price history for dilutions?
How are the adjustments calculated?
Details are at the above link.
What are dilution adjustments?
Why does Incredible Charts adjust price history for dilutions?
How are the adjustments calculated?
Details are at the above link.
Back Issues
You can now view back issues at the Daily Trading Diary Archives.
You can now view back issues at the Daily Trading Diary Archives.
Back Issues
Access the Trading Diary Archives.
Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.