There are now two daily updates of the
Trading Diary:
- the ASX update after 8.00 p.m. AEDT; and
- the US market update after 11.00 a.m. AEDT.
Trading Diary
December 5, 2003
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as
investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at
Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow Industrial Average retreated back below support at 9900,
closing at 9862. Low volume and completion of a false (or
marginal) break are bearish signs.
The intermediate trend is uncertain. A fall below 9600 will complete a double top reversal.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9000 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is uncertain. A fall below 9600 will complete a double top reversal.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9000 will signal reversal.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 31 points to close at 1937. Lower
volume and the break of the primary supporting trendline are
bearish signs.
The intermediate trend is uncertain. A fall below 1880 will complete a double top reversal.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is uncertain. A fall below 1880 will complete a double top reversal.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.
The S&P 500 closed 8 points lower at 1061, breaking through
support on lower volume.
The intermediate trend is uncertain. The index is likely to re-test support at 1035 (as well as the supporting trendline).
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above resistance at 1070. Bearish below 1064 (Thursday's low).
The intermediate trend is uncertain. The index is likely to re-test support at 1035 (as well as the supporting trendline).
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above resistance at 1070. Bearish below 1064 (Thursday's low).
The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will signal
reversal.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1070.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1070.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator retreated
to 81.67% (December 5).
Intel wireless
Intel reports wireless chipset sales below expectations. (more)
Intel reports wireless chipset sales below expectations. (more)
Job creation slows
57,000 non-farm jobs were added in November, compared to 137,000 in October. (more)
57,000 non-farm jobs were added in November, compared to 137,000 in October. (more)
Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes gapped down to 4.21%.
The intermediate down-trend is weak..
The primary trend is up.
The yield on 10-year treasury notes gapped down to 4.21%.
The intermediate down-trend is weak..
The primary trend is up.
The
yield differential is a healthy 3.3% (10-year T-notes
compared to 13-week T-bills).
US charts
US stocks are now loaded on the server.
We will release a new version of Incredible Charts, with a revised menu structure, on Sunday.
Gold
New York (13.30): Spot gold closed the week up at $406.00 after another test of the new 400 support level.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect support at 400, resistance at 415.
New York (13.30): Spot gold closed the week up at $406.00 after another test of the new 400 support level.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect support at 400, resistance at 415.
|
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries closed almost unchanged at 3232. Lower volume
signals consolidation, favoring continuation of the intermediate
up-trend. Bearish performance of the US markets may outweigh
this.
MACD (26,12,9) and Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) are above their
signal lines.
Short-term: Bullish above 3212, the November 12 low. Bearish below 3173 (Monday's low).
Short-term: Bullish above 3212, the November 12 low. Bearish below 3173 (Monday's low).
XAO is below the long-term trendline, signaling weakness. The
primary trend is up but will reverse if there is a fall below
3160 (the October 1 low). Twiggs Money Flow (100) has crossed
above its signal line, indicating accumulation after the bearish
triple
divergence.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3212. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3212. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.
Sector Analysis
The 11 sectors (10 + Property) are in various market stages. Relative Strength (xjo) measures the performance of each sector relative to the overall index.
The 11 sectors (10 + Property) are in various market stages. Relative Strength (xjo) measures the performance of each sector relative to the overall index.
- Energy [XEJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Materials [XMJ] - stage 2 (RS is falling)
- Industrials [XNJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 2 (RS is falling)
- Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 1 (RS is rising)
- Health Care [XHJ] - stage 2 (RS is level)
- Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 3 (RS is rising).
- Financial excl. Property [XXJ] - stage 4** (RS is falling)
- Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 2 (RS is falling)
- Utilities [XUJ] - stage 3 (RS is level)
** Financial-x-Property Trusts [XXJ] formed a narrow line
(or trading range) over the past 5 months. Within that
consolidation pattern one can still see 3- to 6-week highs and
lows, but I choose to ignore them because of the overriding
pattern. The index broke below the 3933 support level at [7],
signaling a primary trend reversal, but has subsequently
retreated back within the pattern. This is a weak signal.
However, Relative Strength (xjo) is falling and I will treat the
primary trend as downwards until there is clear evidence
to the contrary (such as a break above resistance at 4130 or a
successful test of support at 3933).
Sectors: Relative Strength
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) increased to 24 stocks (compared to 131 on April 11, 2003; and 8 on March 14, 2003). Prominent sectors are:
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) increased to 24 stocks (compared to 131 on April 11, 2003; and 8 on March 14, 2003). Prominent sectors are:
- Real Estate Investment Trusts (9)
- Diversified Commercial (3)
Daily Trading Diary
Stocks analyzed during the week were:
Stocks analyzed during the week were:
- Commonwealth Bank - CBA
- National Australia Bank - NAB
- Westpac - WBC
- Gunns - GNS
- St George Bank - SGB
- Challenger - CFG
- Brambles - BIL
Understanding
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the
archives.
Colin Twiggs
The man who can master his time can master nearly anything.
~ Winston Churchill
~ Winston Churchill
Incredible
Posts: Best of the Forum
A collection of the most highly-rated posts since the start of the Forum.
Thanks to Mosaic for coming up with the idea and providing the initial list.
And thanks to all contributors.
A collection of the most highly-rated posts since the start of the Forum.
Thanks to Mosaic for coming up with the idea and providing the initial list.
And thanks to all contributors.
Back Issues
You can now view back issues at the Daily Trading Diary Archives.
You can now view back issues at the Daily Trading Diary Archives.
Back Issues
Access the Trading Diary Archives.
Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.