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Trading Diary
November 28, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
Trading hours were reduced to half-day following Thanksgiving Holiday on Thursday.

The Dow Industrial Average closed almost unchanged at 9782. 
The intermediate trend is down. Expect support at 9500 and 9230.
Twiggs Money Flow shows a bearish divergence.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 9000 will signal reversal.



The Nasdaq Composite gained 7 points to close at 1960 on low volume.
The intermediate trend is down. Expect support at 1880 and 1840.
The primary trend is up. A fall below support at 1640 will signal reversal.


 


The S&P 500 closed unchanged at 1058 on low volume. 
The intermediate down- trend is weak.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above the high of 1064. Bearish below 1048 (Wednesday's low).


The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1064.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator closed up at 80.88% (November 28).


Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes gapped up to 4.32%, after a marginal break below support at 4.19%.
The intermediate down-trend is weak..
The primary trend is up.



The yield differential is healthy at 3.4% (10-year T-notes compared to 13-week T-bills). 




Gold
New York (13.30): Spot gold closed the week up at $398.10.
The intermediate trend is up. Consolidation in a narrow band below resistance at 400 is a bullish sign.
The primary trend is up. Expect resistance at 400 to 415.




ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries closed 2 points up at 3196. The weak close and higher volume signal increased buying support.



The intermediate down-trend is leveling out above support at 3160.
MACD (26,12,9) is below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is above.
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords crosses above 3212, the November 12 low. Bearish below 3182 (Friday's low).



XAO is below the long-term trendline, signaling weakness. The primary trend is up but will reverse if there is a fall below 3160 (the October 1 low). Declining weekly volume increases the likelihood that support at 3160 will hold. Twiggs Money Flow (100) continues to signal distribution after a bearish triple divergence.
Intermediate term: Bullish above 3212. Bearish below 3160.
Long-term: Bearish below 3160.

Sector Analysis
 The 11 sectors (10 + Property) are in various market stages. Relative Strength (xjo) measures the performance of each sector relative to the overall index.
  • Energy [XEJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Materials [XMJ] - stage 2 (RS is falling)
  • Industrials [XNJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 2 (RS is falling)
  • Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 1 (RS is rising)
  • Health Care [XHJ] - stage 2 (RS is level)
  • Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 3 (RS is rising).
  • Financial excl. Property [XXJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling) 
  • Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 2 (RS is level)
  • Utilities [XUJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)

Energy [XEJ] is in a strong stage 2 up-trend, accompanied by rising Relative Strength (xjo).



Sectors: Relative Strength
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) increased to 19 stocks (compared to 131 on April 11, 2003; and 8 on March 14, 2003). Gold is the only prominent sector.

Daily Trading Diary
Stocks analyzed during the week were:
  • Wattyl - WYL
  • BHP Billiton - BHP
  • Jubilee Mines - JBM
  • Adsteam - ADZ
  • Amcor - AMC
  • Cochlear - COH





Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the archives.

Colin Twiggs


We attempt to make order out of the market and find reasons for everything. 
This attempt to find order tends to block one's ability to go with the flow of the markets,
because we see what we expect to see rather than what is really happening.

~ Van K Tharp: Trade your way to Financial Freedom.



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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.