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Daylight Saving As of 2.00am 26 October 2003, Daylight Saving begins in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and the ACT. Market hours remain unchanged in these States but will commence one hour earlier in all other States. |
Trading Diary
October 24, 2003
These extracts from my daily trading diary
are for educational purposes
and should not be interpreted as investment
advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow Industrial Average formed a long tail, closing at 9582 on
strong volume; signaling buying support above the long-term
trendline.
The intermediate trend has turned down.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 9000 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend has turned down.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 9000 will signal reversal.
The Nasdaq Composite formed a weak close on higher volume,
signaling support above the long-term trendline.
The intermediate trend has turned down. Expect support at 1783.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 1640 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend has turned down. Expect support at 1783.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 1640 will signal reversal.
The S&P 500 closed 5 points down at 1034 on lower volume. The
long tail signals buying support; a hammer
reversal.
The intermediate trend has turned down.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend has turned down.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator eased to
80.31% (October 24).
Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1054. Bearish below 1026.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1054.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1054. Bearish below 1026.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1054.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.
Market lukewarm
The sell-off of tech stocks, after a conservative forecast by Microsoft, reflect a lack of enthusiasm from buyers. (more)
The sell-off of tech stocks, after a conservative forecast by Microsoft, reflect a lack of enthusiasm from buyers. (more)
Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes appears headed for a test of support at 4.00%, after a downward close at 4.21%.
The intermediate trend has turned down.
The primary trend is up.
The yield on 10-year treasury notes appears headed for a test of support at 4.00%, after a downward close at 4.21%.
The intermediate trend has turned down.
The primary trend is up.
Gold
New York (13.30): Spot gold rallied to $388.20.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect resistance at 400 to 415.
New York (13.30): Spot gold rallied to $388.20.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. Expect resistance at 400 to 415.
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries lost 8 points to close at 3266. Lower volume
is an encouraging sign above support at 3250.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up. The rally is extended and the probability of a reversal increases with each successive primary trend movement.
A fall below 3160 will signal reversal.
MACD (26,12,9) has crossed below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below; Twiggs Money Flow (100) has crossed below and displays a bearish "triple" divergence.
The primary trend is up. The rally is extended and the probability of a reversal increases with each successive primary trend movement.
A fall below 3160 will signal reversal.
MACD (26,12,9) has crossed below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below; Twiggs Money Flow (100) has crossed below and displays a bearish "triple" divergence.
Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords is above 3317. Bearish below 3283.
Intermediate: Bullish above 3317.
Long-term: Bullish above 3160.
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords is above 3317. Bearish below 3283.
Intermediate: Bullish above 3317.
Long-term: Bullish above 3160.
Sector Analysis
Changes are highlighted in bold.
Changes are highlighted in bold.
- Energy [XEJ] - stage 2 (RS is level).
- Materials [XMJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Industrials [XNJ] - stage 2 (RS is level).
- Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 1 (RS is falling)
- Health Care [XHJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)
- Financial excl. Property [XXJ] - stage 2 (RS is level)
- Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 2 (RS is level).
- Utilities [XUJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)
Sectors: Relative Strength
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) rose to 66 stocks (compared to 131 on April 11, 2003; and 8 on March 14, 2003).
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) rose to 66 stocks (compared to 131 on April 11, 2003; and 8 on March 14, 2003).
- Broadcasting & Cable TV (6)
- Publishing (4)
- Construction Materials (4)
- Construction & Engineering (3)
- Steel (3)
- Diversified Metals & Mining (3)
- Casinos & Gaming (3)
- Data Processing (3)
- REITs (3)
Daily Trading Diary
Stocks analyzed during the week were:
Stocks analyzed during the week were:
- APN News Media - APN
- Fairfax - FXJ
- PMP Limited - PMP
- West Australian Newspapers - WAN
- Sirtex - SRX
- Chemeq - CMQ
- Cohlear - COH
- Gribbles - GGL
- Oil Search - OSH
- Novus Petroleum - NVS
- ROC Oil - ROC
Understanding
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers, including
directions on how to search the archives.
Colin Twiggs
In studies of price movement inertia has its
value as well as activity,
and not infrequently gives an important indication of future changes
of a more radical character.
~ William Hamilton: The Wall Street Journal (July 14, 1911).
and not infrequently gives an important indication of future changes
of a more radical character.
~ William Hamilton: The Wall Street Journal (July 14, 1911).
Premium members can now chart ETOs and Warrants.
The data feed is still beta at this stage.
The data feed is still beta at this stage.
Back Issues
You can now view back issues at the Daily Trading Diary Archives.
You can now view back issues at the Daily Trading Diary Archives.
Back Issues
Access the Trading Diary Archives.
Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.