ETOs and Warrants
ETOs and warrants are ready and will be introduced next week. 
US stocks will follow.



Trading Diary
October 3, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow Industrial Average rallied 0.9% to 9572 on higher volume. The long shadow signals selling pressure.
The intermediate trend is down. A rise above 9686 will signal reversal.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 9000 will signal reversal.



The Nasdaq Composite gapped upwards, closing 45 points higher at 1881 on strong volume.
The intermediate trend is down. A rise above 1914 will signal reversal.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 1640 will signal reversal.


 


The S&P 500 rallied 10 points to close at 1030 on higher volume. The long shadow signals selling pressure.
The intermediate trend is weak. A rise above 1040 will signal resumption of the up-trend.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.



The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator rose to 79.53% (October 3).

Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1020. Bearish below 990.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1040.
Long-term: Bullish above 960.


Early signs of employment growth
Non-farm jobs grew by 57,000 in September. The first rise in 8 months. (more)

Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury jumped sharply to 4.20%, after testing support at 4.00%.
The intermediate down-trend appears weak. 
The primary trend is up.





Gold
New York (13.30): Spot gold fell sharply to close at $368.70.
The intermediate trend has turned down.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 350 will signal reversal.
The target for the symmetrical triangle is calculated as 426 (365 + 382 - 321), but expect heavy resistance between 400 and 415 (the 10-year high).




ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries consolidated after Thursday's sharp rally, closing up 3 points at 3206 on lower volume. Expect resistance at 3214 and 3250 to be tested after the strong performance of US markets.



The intermediate trend is down. The next support level is at 3080.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 3000 will signal reversal.  

MACD (26,12,9) is below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has crossed to above; Twiggs Money Flow signals distribution.
The monthly Coppock Indicator continues to rise below zero, signaling a bull market.



Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords is above 3250. Bearish below 3160.
Intermediate: Bullish above 3250.
Long-term: Bullish above 3000.

Sector Analysis
Changes are highlighted in bold.
  • Energy [XEJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising).
  • Materials [XMJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Industrials [XNJ] - stage 1 (RS is level)
  • Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 1 (RS is falling)
  • Health Care [XHJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)
  • Financial excl. Property [XXJ] - stage 2 (RS is level) 
  • Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising).
  • Utilities [XUJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)

Sectors: Relative Strength
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) has fallen to 32 stocks (compared to 131 on April 11, 2003; and 8 on March 14, 2003).
  • Gold (5)
  • Diversified Metals & Mining (3)
  • Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (3)
  • Casinos & Gaming (3)

Daily Trading Diary
Stocks analyzed during the week were:
  • Telstra - TLS
  • Aristocrat - ALL
  • CSL Limited - CSL
  • Newscorp - NCP
  • Spotless - SPT
  • Foodland - FOA
  • Woolworths - WOW
  • Consolidated Minerals - CSM
  • Primelife - PLF
  • Skilled Engineering - SKE





Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the archives.

Colin Twiggs


Victor Frankl suggests that there are three central values in life
- the experiential, or that which happens to us;
the creative, or that which we bring into existence;
and the attitudinal, or our response in difficult circumstances ....

My own experience with people confirms the point that Frankl makes
- that the highest of the three values is attitudinal ....
In other words, what matters most is how we respond to what we experience in life.

~ Steven Covey: The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People.



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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.