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Trading Diary
September 29, 2003
These extracts from my daily trading diary
are for educational purposes
and should not be interpreted as investment
advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow Industrial Average formed a weak
pivot point reversal on low volume, closing up 0.7% at 9380
on an outside day.
The intermediate trend is weak, with continued low volume.
The primary trend is up. The trendline has been broken, signaling weakness. A fall below 9000 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is weak, with continued low volume.
The primary trend is up. The trendline has been broken, signaling weakness. A fall below 9000 will signal reversal.
The Nasdaq Composite recovered 33 points to 1835 on lower
volume.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. Price appears headed for a re-test of the supporting trendline. A fall below 1640 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. Price appears headed for a re-test of the supporting trendline. A fall below 1640 will signal reversal.
The S&P 500 recovered 10 points, to above the 1000 support
level, at 1007, on lower volume.
The intermediate trend is weak.
The primary trend is up. The trendline has been broken, signaling weakness. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is weak.
The primary trend is up. The trendline has been broken, signaling weakness. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator eased to
78.55% (September 29).
Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1008. Bearish below 995.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1008.
Long-term: Bullish above 1008.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1008. Bearish below 995.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1008.
Long-term: Bullish above 1008.
Consumer spending rises
Fuelled by mortgage refinancing, August consumer spending rose by 0.8%, while personal incomes increased by 0.2%. (more)
Fuelled by mortgage refinancing, August consumer spending rose by 0.8%, while personal incomes increased by 0.2%. (more)
Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes formed an inside day with a close at 4.08%, after testing support at 4.00%.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A close below 4.00% will signal weakness.
The yield on 10-year treasury notes formed an inside day with a close at 4.08%, after testing support at 4.00%.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A close below 4.00% will signal weakness.
Gold
New York (16:53): Spot gold tested 379 before recovering to 381.80.
The primary trend is up.
The target for the symmetrical triangle is calculated as 426 (365 + 382 - 321), but expect heavy resistance between 400 and 415 (the 10-year high).
New York (16:53): Spot gold tested 379 before recovering to 381.80.
The primary trend is up.
The target for the symmetrical triangle is calculated as 426 (365 + 382 - 321), but expect heavy resistance between 400 and 415 (the 10-year high).
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries closed down 6 points at 3170. Low volume and
volatility signal that a reversal is likely.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 3000 will signal reversal.
MACD (26,12,9) is below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below;
Twiggs Money Flow (100) displays two bearish peaks below the signal line.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 3000 will signal reversal.
MACD (26,12,9) is below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below;
Twiggs Money Flow (100) displays two bearish peaks below the signal line.
Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords is above 3180. Bearish below 3162.
Intermediate: Bullish above 3180.
Long-term: Bullish above 3180.
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords is above 3180. Bearish below 3162.
Intermediate: Bullish above 3180.
Long-term: Bullish above 3180.
Telstra [TLS]
Last covered on August 5, 2003.
TLS formed an unstable V-bottom after a long stage 4 down-trend. Price rallied to test resistance at 5.00 but retreated after making a false (or marginal) break above that level. Twiggs Money Flow (100) has turned down sharply.
Last covered on August 5, 2003.
TLS formed an unstable V-bottom after a long stage 4 down-trend. Price rallied to test resistance at 5.00 but retreated after making a false (or marginal) break above that level. Twiggs Money Flow (100) has turned down sharply.
The break of the intermediate trendline signals weakness.
After a steady rise, Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is re-testing support levels. A break below the previous low will be bearish; a new 3-month low will be an even stronger signal.
After a steady rise, Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is re-testing support levels. A break below the previous low will be bearish; a new 3-month low will be an even stronger signal.
The marginal break above resistance, after [3], is followed to
two equal lower highs at [4] and [5]; another bear signal. The
retreat then encountered support at [6], coinciding with the high
of [1], forming an over-square bar after a downward gap. Selling
pressure overcame support and price appears headed for a test of
support at the low of [2].
A fall below the low of [2] will signal a likely re-test of
support at 4.00. If price consolidates between 4.60 and 5.00,
that will be a long-term bull signal, favoring another breakout
on the up-side.
Understanding
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers, including
directions on how to search the archives.
Colin Twiggs
If you're brave in being daring, you'll be
killed;
If you're brave in not being daring, you'll live;
With these two things, in one case there's profit,
in the other there's harm.
The things Heaven hates - who knows why?
The Way is not to fight yet to be good at winning -
Not to speak yet skillfully respond -
No one summons it, yet it comes on its own -
To be at ease yet carefully plan.
~ Lao Tse.
If you're brave in not being daring, you'll live;
With these two things, in one case there's profit,
in the other there's harm.
The things Heaven hates - who knows why?
The Way is not to fight yet to be good at winning -
Not to speak yet skillfully respond -
No one summons it, yet it comes on its own -
To be at ease yet carefully plan.
~ Lao Tse.
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Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.