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Trading Diary
September 26, 2003
These extracts from my daily trading diary
are for educational purposes
and should not be interpreted as investment
advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow Industrial Average declined to 9313, testing support at
9300.
The intermediate trend is weak, with continued low volume.
The primary trend is up. The trendline has been broken, signaling weakness. A fall below 9000 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is weak, with continued low volume.
The primary trend is up. The trendline has been broken, signaling weakness. A fall below 9000 will signal reversal.
The Nasdaq Composite closed down 26 points at 1792 on lower
volume.
The intermediate trend has turned down.
The primary trend is up. Price appears headed for a re-test of the supporting trendline. A fall below 1640 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend has turned down.
The primary trend is up. Price appears headed for a re-test of the supporting trendline. A fall below 1640 will signal reversal.
The S&P 500 broke through support at 1000 to close at 997 on
lower volume.
The intermediate trend is weak.
The primary trend is up. The trendline has been broken, signaling weakness. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.
The intermediate trend is weak.
The primary trend is up. The trendline has been broken, signaling weakness. A fall below 960 will signal reversal.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator fell
sharply to 78.81% (September 26).
Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1008. Bearish below 1000.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1008.
Long-term: Bullish above 1008.
Short-term: Bullish if the S&P500 is above 1008. Bearish below 1000.
Intermediate: Bullish above 1008.
Long-term: Bullish above 1008.
Consumer sentiment falls
The University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment fell to 87.7 for September, from 89.3 in August. (more)
The University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment fell to 87.7 for September, from 89.3 in August. (more)
Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury closed down at 4.02%, testing support between 4.10% to 4.00%.
The intermediate trend has turned down.
The primary trend is up. A close below 4.00% will signal weakness.
The yield on 10-year treasury closed down at 4.02%, testing support between 4.10% to 4.00%.
The intermediate trend has turned down.
The primary trend is up. A close below 4.00% will signal weakness.
Gold
New York (13.30): Spot gold broke through resistance at 382, rising as high as 393 before retreating back to 380.20.
The primary trend is up.
The target for the symmetrical triangle is calculated as 426 (365 + 382 - 321), but expect heavy resistance between 400 and 415 (the 10-year high).
New York (13.30): Spot gold broke through resistance at 382, rising as high as 393 before retreating back to 380.20.
The primary trend is up.
The target for the symmetrical triangle is calculated as 426 (365 + 382 - 321), but expect heavy resistance between 400 and 415 (the 10-year high).
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries broke below support at 3180, closing 4 points
lower at 3176. Strong volume and a narrow range signal buying
support above the long-term trendline.
The intermediate trend has turned down. The next support level is
at 3080.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 3000 will signal reversal.
MACD (26,12,9) is below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below;
Twiggs Money Flow (100) displays a bearish peak [-] below the signal line.
The primary trend is up. A fall below 3000 will signal reversal.
MACD (26,12,9) is below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below;
Twiggs Money Flow (100) displays a bearish peak [-] below the signal line.
Market Strategy
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords is above 3214. Bearish below 3170.
Intermediate: Bullish above 3214.
Long-term: Bullish above 3180.
Short-term: Bullish if the All Ords is above 3214. Bearish below 3170.
Intermediate: Bullish above 3214.
Long-term: Bullish above 3180.
Sector Analysis
Changes are highlighted in bold.
Changes are highlighted in bold.
- Energy [XEJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising).
- Materials [XMJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Industrials [XNJ] - stage 1 (RS is level)
- Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 1 (RS is falling)
- Health Care [XHJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)
- Financial excl. Property Trusts [XXJ] - stage 2 (RS is level)
- Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 2 (RS is level).
- Utilities [XUJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)
Financial index [ XXJ] completed a symmetrical triangle with an
upward breakout on September 18. The index, however, failed to
make further gains, pulling back to re-test support. Further
consolidation lies ahead, with resistance at 4100 and support at
3992.
Property Trusts [XPJ] has formed a large stage 3 top pattern.
Support at 1400 has, so far, held firm. A break below this level
will signal the start of a stage 4 down-trend.
Sectors: Relative Strength
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) has fallen to 54 stocks (compared to 131 on April 11, 2003; and 8 on March 14, 2003).
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) has fallen to 54 stocks (compared to 131 on April 11, 2003; and 8 on March 14, 2003).
- Gold (6)
- Diversified Metals & Mining (4)
- Diversified Commercial (3)
- Diversified Financial (3)
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (3)
Daily Trading Diary
Stocks analyzed during the week were:
Stocks analyzed during the week were:
- Billabong - BBG
- Globe International - GLB
- Kingsgate - KCN
- Sons Of Gwalia - SGW
- Newcrest - NCM
- Computershare - CPU
- Higlands Pacific - HIG
Understanding
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers, including
directions on how to search the archives.
Colin Twiggs
I began to feel more and more that much of the
success literature of the past 50 years was
superficial.......
In stark contrast, almost all the literature in the first 150 years or so focused on what could be called the Character Ethic as the foundation of success - things like integrity, humility, fidelity, temperance, courage, justice, patience, industry, simplicity, modesty and the Golden Rule. Benjamin Franklin's autobiography is representative of that literature. It is, basically, the story of one man's efforts to integrate certain principles and habits deep within his nature.
The Character Ethic taught that there are basic principles of effective living, and that people can only experience true success and enduring happiness as they learn and integrate these principles into their basic character.
~ Steven Covey: The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People.
In stark contrast, almost all the literature in the first 150 years or so focused on what could be called the Character Ethic as the foundation of success - things like integrity, humility, fidelity, temperance, courage, justice, patience, industry, simplicity, modesty and the Golden Rule. Benjamin Franklin's autobiography is representative of that literature. It is, basically, the story of one man's efforts to integrate certain principles and habits deep within his nature.
The Character Ethic taught that there are basic principles of effective living, and that people can only experience true success and enduring happiness as they learn and integrate these principles into their basic character.
~ Steven Covey: The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People.
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Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.