|
Incredible Charts version
4.0.2.500 The new version is now available. Check Help>>About to ensure that your software has been automatically updated. The update offers further improvements to the watchlist menu, powerful new scrolling features and supports the use of Large Font settings on laptop (and desktop) computers. See What's New? for further details. |
Trading Diary
September 12, 2003
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as
investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at
Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow Industrial Average closed almost unchanged at 9472 on low
volume.
The intermediate trend is up. Continued low volume signals weakness.
The primary trend is up.
The intermediate trend is up. Continued low volume signals weakness.
The primary trend is up.
The Nasdaq Composite closed 9 points higher at 1855 on average
volume. A rise above 1860 will signal resumption of the fast
up-trend.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.
The S&P 500 closed up 3 points at 1019 after a false break
below support at 1010 on low volume.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is
slightly higher at 79.78% (September 12).
Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P500 is above 1023.
Intermediate: Long if S&P 500 is above 1023.
Long-term: Long is the index is above 960.
Short-term: Long if the S&P500 is above 1023.
Intermediate: Long if S&P 500 is above 1023.
Long-term: Long is the index is above 960.
Fund Managers exposed
Morningstar recommends that investors sell mutual funds run by four major fund managers, after allegations that they allowed hedge fund Canary Capital Partners special trading access to some of their funds, at investors expense. Canary agrees to a $40 million settlement of charges "without admitting or denying wrongdoing". (more)
Morningstar recommends that investors sell mutual funds run by four major fund managers, after allegations that they allowed hedge fund Canary Capital Partners special trading access to some of their funds, at investors expense. Canary agrees to a $40 million settlement of charges "without admitting or denying wrongdoing". (more)
Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes is down from last week at 4.27% after testing support at 4.20%.
The intermediate and primary trends are both up.
The yield on 10-year treasury notes is down from last week at 4.27% after testing support at 4.20%.
The intermediate and primary trends are both up.
Gold
New York (13.30): Spot gold retreated to close the week at $375.00, after repeated tests of resistance at 382.
The primary trend is up.
Price has broken above a symmetrical triangle formed since the start of the year. If gold rises above resistance at 382, the target is the 10-year high of 420.
New York (13.30): Spot gold retreated to close the week at $375.00, after repeated tests of resistance at 382.
The primary trend is up.
Price has broken above a symmetrical triangle formed since the start of the year. If gold rises above resistance at 382, the target is the 10-year high of 420.
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries closed 2 points lower at 3195, signaling
uncertainty with an inside day on reasonable volume. The index is
down 25 points for the week.
The intermediate trend is up but the index has broken its upward
trendline.
The primary trend is up.
MACD (26,12,9) has crossed to below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below;
Twiggs Money Flow displays a bearish divergence.
The primary trend is up.
MACD (26,12,9) has crossed to below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below;
Twiggs Money Flow displays a bearish divergence.
Market Strategy
Short-term: Long above 3220.
Intermediate: Long if the index is above 3160.
Long-term: Long if the index is above 2978 .
Short-term: Long above 3220.
Intermediate: Long if the index is above 3160.
Long-term: Long if the index is above 2978 .
Sector Analysis
Changes are highlighted in bold.
Changes are highlighted in bold.
- Energy [XEJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising).
- Materials [XMJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Industrials [XNJ] - stage 1 (RS is level)
- Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 1 (RS is falling)
- Health Care [XHJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)
- Financial excl. Property Trusts [XXJ] - stage 2 (RS is falling).
- Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 2 (RS is level).
- Utilities [XUJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)
Sectors: Relative Strength
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) has fallen to 59 stocks (compared to 131 on April 11, 2003; and 8 on March 14, 2003).
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) has fallen to 59 stocks (compared to 131 on April 11, 2003; and 8 on March 14, 2003).
- Diversified Metals & Mining (7)
- Gold (5)
- Diversified Commercial (3)
- Construction & Engineering (3)
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (3)
Daily Trading Diary
Stocks analyzed during the week were:
Stocks analyzed during the week were:
- Australian Stock Exchange - ASX
- Croesus - CRS
- Kingsgate - KCN
- Lihir - LHG
- Newcrest - NCM
- Oxiana - OXR
- Sons of Gwalia - SGW
- Challenger - CFG
- Australian Gas Light - AGL
- Australian Pipeline Trust - APA
- Caltex Australia - CTX
- MIA Group - MIA
- Sonic Healthcare - SHL
Understanding
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers, including directions on how to search the
archives.
Colin Twiggs
Great minds have purposes; others have
wishes.
~ SA Nelson: The ABC of Stock Speculation (1903).
~ SA Nelson: The ABC of Stock Speculation (1903).
Become a Premium Member
for only
$270
for only
$270
Includes
Incredible Charts Premium version with hourly
updates
and the Daily Trading Diary (click here for a free sample).
and the Daily Trading Diary (click here for a free sample).
Back Issues
You can now view back issues at the Daily Trading Diary Archives.
You can now view back issues at the Daily Trading Diary Archives.
Back Issues
Access the Trading Diary Archives.
Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.