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Trading Diary
September 8, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes only and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .

The Dow Industrial Average regained Friday's losses to close at 9586. Low volumes continue to signal weakness.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.

The Nasdaq Composite rallied 31 points to 1889 on strong volume.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.


The S&P 500 rallied 11 points to close at 1032. The short correction signals a fast up-trend but lower volume warns of susceptibility to selling pressure. 
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is at a 10-year high of 79.87% (September 8).

Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P500 is above 1029.
Intermediate: Long if S&P 500 is above 1015.
Long-term: Long is the index is above 960.

Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes steadied at 4.39%. 
The yield is ranging just above the support level, between 4.67% and 4.20%, a bullish sign.
The primary trend is up.

New York (19.30): Spot gold eased to $375.40.
The primary trend is up.
Price has broken above a symmetrical triangle formed since the start of the year. If gold penetrates overhead resistance at 382, the target is the 10-year high of 420.

ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries gained 13 points to close at 3233. Volume has dried up during the last 4 days congestion, signaling continuation.

The intermediate and primary trends are up. 

MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below; Twiggs Money Flow shows a bearish divergence.

Market Strategy
Short-term: Long above 3238.
Intermediate: Long if the index is above 3160.
Long-term: Long if the index is above 2978 .

Australian Stock Exchange [ASX]
ASX has been ranging between 10.00 and 14.00 for the last 3 years. Price is now testing resistance at the upper border of the range.
Relative Strength is level while Twiggs Money Flow (100) and MACD show bearish divergences.

On the daily volume chart, exceptional volume at [2] emphasizes support at 13.00. Strong volume continued with a false break above 14.00 at [3] and another at [4]. We then have a large gap down (close down from 13.90 to 13.46) on the day the stock goes ex-dividend (45.60 cents) with strong volume and a long tail signaling buying support.

Volume has faded on the rally to [6] and we are likely to see a re-test of support at 13.00. 
A close below 12.50 would be a strong bear signal. A close above 14.00 would be bullish.

Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers.

Colin Twiggs

Be fearful when others are greedy
and greedy only when others are fearful.

~ Warren Buffet.

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