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Trading Diary
September 1, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .


Consumer Spending
The Commerce Department reports that consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of economic activity, grew 0.8 percent in July, compared to 0.6% in June. (more)

Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes is almost unchanged from last week at 4.45%.
The intermediate and primary trends are both up.

New York (13.30): Spot gold ended the week up at $375.30.
The primary trend is up.
Price has broken above a symmetrical triangle, with a target of 420. There may still be some resistance at 382.

ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries gained 9 points to close at 3212 on strong volume. Heavy volume often precedes a correction so we need to be on the alert.

The intermediate trend and primary trend are both up.

MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is above;
Twiggs Money Flow signals accumulation.

Market Strategy
Short-term: Go long if the All Ords is above 3203. Go short if the intermediate trend reverses.
Intermediate: Go long if the index is above 3160.
Long-term: Take long positions if the index is above 2978 .

Information Technology
Like Lazarus rising from the dead, the IT sector index [XIJ] has made a new high for 2003, signaling a primary up-trend.
Relative Strength, MACD and Twiggs Money Flow (100) are all rising.

Autron [AAT] has broken above resistance at 0.20 on strong volume, commencing a strong rally.
MACD is bullish; Relative Strength is rising; while Twiggs Money flow still lingers below zero, signaling distribution.
V-bottoms often retreat to re-test support levels at the base.

ERG limited [ERG] is forming a broad stage 1 base.
MACD and Relative Strength are both level, while Twiggs Money has fallen back below zero, signaling distribution, after a sharp upward spike.

Equal lows in a down-trend are not a strong reversal signal until price breaks above the neckline. HPAL [HPX] appears to be consolidating just above the support level, a bearish sign.
MACD has completed a bearish trough below zero; Relative Strength is falling; and Twiggs Money Flow signals strong distribution.

Infomedia [IFM] has broken out above a broad stage 1 base.
Relative Strength is rising; MACD is bullish; while Twiggs Money flow still signals distribution after a sharp drop in May.

KAZ Group [KAZ] has formed a base in the form of a bullish rounded bottom, rallying on strong volume to test resistance at 0.265.
MACD is bullish; Relative Strength is rising; while Twiggs Money Flow still signals distribution.

SMS [SMX] completed a bullish double bottom with a break above 0.25 accompanied by heavy volume. 
Twiggs Money Flow has spiked sharply, signaling strong accumulation; MACD is fairly bullish and Relative Strength threatens to make a new 3-month high. 

Solution 6 [SOH] has formed a V-bottom, often unstable.
Relative Strength is rising; MACD is fairly bullish; while Twiggs Money Flow signals a bearish divergence.

Technology One [TNE] has rallied off a fairly narrow base.
MACD is bullish; Relative Strength is rising; but Twiggs Money Flow still signals distribution.
A break below the trendline would be a further bear signal.

Vision [VSL] has risen above a broad base in the form of a descending triangle, accompanied by strong volume (Note the initial V-bottom in late 2002).
Relative Strength has formed a bullish 3-month high; Twiggs Money Flow signals strong accumulation; and MACD is bullish.

Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers.

Colin Twiggs

Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls Royce
to get advice from those who take the subway.

~ Warren Buffet

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