|
Incredible Charts version 4.0.2.300 is now available Check Help >> About to ensure that your version has automatically updated. To scroll through a watchlist: (1) Open the Watchlist menu; (2) Set the Active Watchlist; (3) Scroll through the watchlist using the up/down arrows on the toolbar. To select a stock from the Active Watchlist: (1) Open the Watchlist menu; (2) Place your mouse over the Active Watchlist at the bottom of the menu; (3) Select a security from the pop-up list. See Watchlists for further details. |
Trading Diary
August 25, 2003
These extracts from my daily trading diary
are for educational purposes
and should not be interpreted as investment
advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow closed below the new 9350 support level, down 0.3% at
9318. Volume is reassuringly low.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.
The Nasdaq Composite lost 1 point to close at 1764, after a false
break above the previous high [a]. Volume is, again, reassuringly
low.
Equal highs in an up-trend are not particularly bearish - unless the index falls below the intervening low of 1640.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.
Equal highs in an up-trend are not particularly bearish - unless the index falls below the intervening low of 1640.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.
The S&P 500 closed up 1 point at 994 on lower volume.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator closed
last week at 76.71% (August 22).
Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P500 is above 1011. Short if below 988.
Intermediate: Long if S&P 500 is above 1015. Short if below 960.
Long-term: Long is the index is above 960.
Short-term: Long if the S&P500 is above 1011. Short if below 988.
Intermediate: Long if S&P 500 is above 1015. Short if below 960.
Long-term: Long is the index is above 960.
Dollar weakens against yen
The Nikkei's rise to a one year high is fuelling a switch from dollars to yen. (more)
The Nikkei's rise to a one year high is fuelling a switch from dollars to yen. (more)
Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year treasury notes closed up at 4.53%, ranging in a narrow band.
The intermediate and primary trends are both up.
The yield on 10-year treasury notes closed up at 4.53%, ranging in a narrow band.
The intermediate and primary trends are both up.
Gold
New York (20.27): Spot gold eased a dollar to $361.60.
The primary trend is up.
New York (20.27): Spot gold eased a dollar to $361.60.
The primary trend is up.
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries retreated 5 points to close at 3175 on lower
volume.
The intermediate and primary trends are up.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is above its signal line; MACD (26,12,9) is above;
Twiggs Money Flow signals accumulation.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is above its signal line; MACD (26,12,9) is above;
Twiggs Money Flow signals accumulation.
Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the All Ords is above 3182. Short if the intermediate trend reverses.
Intermediate: Long if the index is above 3182.
Long-term: Long positions if the index is above 2978 .
Short-term: Long if the All Ords is above 3182. Short if the intermediate trend reverses.
Intermediate: Long if the index is above 3182.
Long-term: Long positions if the index is above 2978 .
Diversified Metals & Mining
Stocks in this sector have recently featured strongly in the weekly stock screen that I do on % Price Move (1 month).
Stocks in this sector have recently featured strongly in the weekly stock screen that I do on % Price Move (1 month).
BHP Billiton [BHP] has formed a broad double bottom, recently
completed with a break out above the neckline.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) has risen above zero, to signal accumulation, after breaking its downward trendline.
Relative Strength threatens to make a new 2-year high, while MACD is bullish.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) has risen above zero, to signal accumulation, after breaking its downward trendline.
Relative Strength threatens to make a new 2-year high, while MACD is bullish.
Centennial Coal [CEY] broke out of a bullish ascending
triangle.
Relative Strength has made a new 2-year high.
Traders should be alert for a pull-back to the new support level at 2.40 which may present entry opportunities.
Relative Strength has made a new 2-year high.
Traders should be alert for a pull-back to the new support level at 2.40 which may present entry opportunities.
Iluka Resources [ILU] has formed a base in the shape of an
ascending triangle. Consolidation just below the 4.40 resistance
level for the past 7 weeks is a bullish sign.
Relative strength appears to be moving sideways, forming a base, while Twiggs Money Flow (100) has crossed to above zero and then pulled back to the zero line. MACD shows a bullish trough [+] above the zero line.
Relative strength appears to be moving sideways, forming a base, while Twiggs Money Flow (100) has crossed to above zero and then pulled back to the zero line. MACD shows a bullish trough [+] above the zero line.
Jubilee Mines [JBM] shows a fast up-trend after breaking out of a
broad ascending triangle base at the beginning of the year.
The up-trend has now rolled over into what promises to be a sharp correction, judging from the strong bearish divergence [-] on Twiggs Money Flow (100).
MACD and Relative Strength have both turned down after a large spike.
The up-trend has now rolled over into what promises to be a sharp correction, judging from the strong bearish divergence [-] on Twiggs Money Flow (100).
MACD and Relative Strength have both turned down after a large spike.
Portman Mining [PMM] has started a stage 2 rally after completing
a double bottom. Many traders will be hoping for a pull-back to
the new 1.20 support level to provide further entry
opportunities.
Relative Strength and Twiggs Money Flow (100) are rising, while MACD is also bullish.
Relative Strength and Twiggs Money Flow (100) are rising, while MACD is also bullish.
Rio Tinto [RIO] formed a head and shoulders at [A], [C] and [E]
but has respected the supporting neckline at 29.00. The trend is
weakening with a far shorter rally from [D] to [E], compared to
the earlier [B] to [C]. The acid-test will be the resistance
level at the high of [E]. Failure to breach this level will be a
strong bear signal and is likely to result in a fall below
29.00.
Twiggs Money Flow and Relative Strength appear to contradict this, making new 3-month highs, while MACD formed a bullish trough above zero; so we shall have to adopt a wait-and-see attitude until price reaches 35.00.
Twiggs Money Flow and Relative Strength appear to contradict this, making new 3-month highs, while MACD formed a bullish trough above zero; so we shall have to adopt a wait-and-see attitude until price reaches 35.00.
Sims Metal [SMS] is in a strong stage 2 up-trend.
Relative Strength has made a new 3-month high while MACD is bullish.
Twiggs Money Flow, however, shows a bearish divergence; so we need to be on the alert for a secondary correction.
Relative Strength has made a new 3-month high while MACD is bullish.
Twiggs Money Flow, however, shows a bearish divergence; so we need to be on the alert for a secondary correction.
Understanding
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers.
Colin Twiggs
Every organism has one and only one central
need in life, to fulfill its own potentialities.
~ Rollo May: Man's Search For Himself.
To set a default security that will load whenever Incredible
Charts opens:
(1) Open your Default Project (using File >> Open Project);
(2) Open the security that you want as a default;
(3) Select Securities >> Make the Current Security the Project Default.
Separate default securities can be set for each project. There is also an option to clear the project default.
(1) Open your Default Project (using File >> Open Project);
(2) Open the security that you want as a default;
(3) Select Securities >> Make the Current Security the Project Default.
Separate default securities can be set for each project. There is also an option to clear the project default.
Back Issues
You can now view back issues at the Daily Trading Diary Archives.
You can now view back issues at the Daily Trading Diary Archives.
Back Issues
Access the Trading Diary Archives.
Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.