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Trading Diary
June 27, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow formed an outside day, closing 1.0% lower at 8989 on slightly higher volume. The close below the 9000 support level signals weakness.
The intermediate trend has turned down.
The primary trend is up.




The S&P 500 lost 9 points to close at 976.
The intermediate trend has turned down.
The primary trend is up.

The Nasdaq Composite has formed bullish equal lows in an up-trend. The index closed down 0.5% at 1625.
The intermediate trend is still up.
The primary trend is up.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is at 74.41% (June 26).

Market Strategy
Short-term: Short if the S&P 500 is below 974; Long if above 992.
Intermediate: Long if S&P 500 is above 1000.
Long-term: Long if S&P 500 is above 1000.


State of the economy
Are the Fed rate cuts enough to turn the US economy around? (more)




Gold
New York (13.30): Spot gold closed the week at $US 344.90.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries formed a hook reversal, rising 21 points on strong volume to close at 3018.
The intermediate trend is down.
The primary trend is up.

Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below its signal line; MACD (26,12,9) is below; Twiggs Money Flow signals accumulation.





Sector Analysis
Changes are highlighted in bold.
  • Energy [XEJ] - stage 1 (RS is level)
  • Materials [XMJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)
  • Industrials [XNJ] - stage 1 (RS is falling)
  • Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 1 (RS is level)
  • Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Health Care [XHJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
  • Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 2 (RS is level)
  • Financial excl. Property Trusts [XXJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
  • Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 4 (RS is level)
  • Utilities [XUJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)

On the 6-month sectors chart below, positive sectors include:

Utilities;

Financials;

Consumer Staples;

Property Trusts;

Energy; and

Telecommunications.



Consumer Discretionary

is rising but shows recent weakness;

Materials,

Health Care and

IT are still struggling.

Sectors: Relative Strength
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) is down at 47 stocks (compared to 131 on April 11, 2003; and 8 on March 14, 2003).
  • Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (4)
  • Diversified Financial (3)
  • Diversified Metals & Mining (3)
  • Steel (3)

Daily Trading Diary
Stocks analyzed during the week were:
  • Foodland - FOA
  • Chemeq - CMQ
  • Coles Myer - CML
  • Westpac - WBC
  • St George - SGB





Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers.

Colin Twiggs


Time is the coin of your life.
It is the only coin you have,
and only you can determine how it will be spent.
Be careful lest you let other people spend it for you.

- Carl Sandburg.




Tip of the Week

To delete a large number of trendlines or captions,
right-click on the chart or indicator slot
and select Delete All Trendlines or Delete All Captions.






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Back Issues
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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.