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The server is back up and running.
There was no diary for Wednesday as we were unable to deliver chart images from the server.
We plan to introduce a second server to run in tandem with the first,
to minimize future down-time.
Trading Diary
June 25, 2003
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading
and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms
and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow closed 1.1% down at 9011 on slightly higher volume; testing the 9000 support level.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary up-trend is up.
The Dow closed 1.1% down at 9011 on slightly higher volume; testing the 9000 support level.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary up-trend is up.
The S&P 500 closed 8 points lower at 975.
The intermediate trend is up. The break of the trendline and 1000 support level signals weakness.
The primary trend is up.
The intermediate trend is up. The break of the trendline and 1000 support level signals weakness.
The primary trend is up.
The Nasdaq Composite appears to be finding support at 1600,
closing 0.2% lower at 1602.
The intermediate trend is up.
The index is in a primary up-trend.
The intermediate trend is up.
The index is in a primary up-trend.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is 0.76%
from its peak, at 74.46% on June 24.
Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P 500 is above 992 (the day's
high).
Intermediate: Long if the S&P is above 1000.
Long-term: Long.
Intermediate: Long if the S&P is above 1000.
Long-term: Long.
Fed cuts rates by a quarter per
cent
The Federal Reserve Board cut the overnight lending rate to one per cent, the lowest level in 45 years. (more)
The Federal Reserve Board cut the overnight lending rate to one per cent, the lowest level in 45 years. (more)
Gold
New York (18.14): Spot gold is down at $US 347.40.
On the five-year chart gold is above the long-term upward trendline.
New York (18.14): Spot gold is down at $US 347.40.
On the five-year chart gold is above the long-term upward trendline.
ASX Australia
Tuesday, the All Ordinaries fell sharply, breaking through
support at 3050. Wednesday, the fall slowed, with the index
closing 3 points lower at 3032 on slightly higher volume. If the
index closes above 3050, it will complete a morning
star (candlestick) reversal.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.
The monthly Coppock indicator has turned up below zero, signaling the start of a bull market.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals accumulation.
MACD (26,12,9) has crossed to below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below; Twiggs Money Flow (21) signals accumulation.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.
The monthly Coppock indicator has turned up below zero, signaling the start of a bull market.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals accumulation.
MACD (26,12,9) has crossed to below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below; Twiggs Money Flow (21) signals accumulation.
Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the All Ords is above 3039 (Wednesday's
high).
Intermediate: The primary trend has reversed up; Long if the All Ords is above 3050.
Long-term: The primary trend reversal has confirmed the March 18 follow through signal. Long.
Intermediate: The primary trend has reversed up; Long if the All Ords is above 3050.
Long-term: The primary trend reversal has confirmed the March 18 follow through signal. Long.
Chemeq [CMQ]
After completing a spike at [4] Chemeq corrected sharply to a low at [5].
There is some resistance to higher prices with [6] failing to close above the high of [5].
The subsequent correction started on thin volume at [7] before encountering buying support at [8].
Strong volume and a high close signal the likelihood of another rally.
Twiggs Money Flow (100-day) still signals accumulation
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is neutral.
MACD (26,12,9) has crossed below its signal line, after completing a bullish trough above zero [+].
After completing a spike at [4] Chemeq corrected sharply to a low at [5].
There is some resistance to higher prices with [6] failing to close above the high of [5].
The subsequent correction started on thin volume at [7] before encountering buying support at [8].
Strong volume and a high close signal the likelihood of another rally.
Twiggs Money Flow (100-day) still signals accumulation
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is neutral.
MACD (26,12,9) has crossed below its signal line, after completing a bullish trough above zero [+].
Coles Myer [CML]
Coles continues to impress after having broken above resistance at 6.60.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) recently made a new 3-month high; and
Twiggs Money Flow (100-day) signals accumulation.
Coles continues to impress after having broken above resistance at 6.60.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) recently made a new 3-month high; and
Twiggs Money Flow (100-day) signals accumulation.
An up-turn above support at 6.90 will signal a fast
up-trend.
A pull-back to support at 6.60 will indicate a slower, more sedate trend.
MACD (26,12,9) has crossed below its signal line, after completing a bullish trough above zero [+].
An up-turn above the zero line will be a bull signal.
A pull-back to support at 6.60 will indicate a slower, more sedate trend.
MACD (26,12,9) has crossed below its signal line, after completing a bullish trough above zero [+].
An up-turn above the zero line will be a bull signal.
A dry-up of volume and daily range (volatility) may forewarn of
an up-turn.
A break below 6.60 would be bearish.
A break below 6.60 would be bearish.
Understanding
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers.
Colin Twiggs
Some in clandestine companies combine;
Erect new stocks to trade beyond the line;
With air and empty names beguile the town,
And raise new credits first, then cry 'em down;
Divide the empty nothing into shares,
And set the crowd together by the ears.
~ Daniel Defoe (1660 - 1731).
Erect new stocks to trade beyond the line;
With air and empty names beguile the town,
And raise new credits first, then cry 'em down;
Divide the empty nothing into shares,
And set the crowd together by the ears.
~ Daniel Defoe (1660 - 1731).
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Click the color button next to an indicator and select a new color from the palette.
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Back Issues
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Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.