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Trading Diary
June 13, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow retreated 0.9% to close at 9117 on encouragingly low volume; up 0.6% on last week's close. The correction may test the new 9000 support level.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary up-trend is up.


The S&P 500 closed 1% down at 988; almost unchanged from last week's close and below the symbolic 1000 resistance level.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up, with the index having broken above 950.




The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.6% to close at 1626, almost unchanged from last week.
The intermediate trend is up.
The index is in a primary up-trend.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator gained more than 3% in the last week, to reach 73.76% on June 12.


Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P 500 is above 1000.
Intermediate: Long if the S&P is above 1000.
Long-term: Long - the S&P 500 primary trend has turned upwards after two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the April 3 NYSE Bullish % signal.


Surprise drop in confidence
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 87.2, from 92.1 in May, when many were expecting a healthy rise. (more)




Gold
New York (13.30): Spot gold closed 1.8% down on last week, at $US 356.50.
On the five-year chart gold is above the long-term upward trendline.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries closed above 3050 signaling the start of a primary up-trend. The index closed the week at 3053 on strong volume; up 35 points on last week.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend has started an up-trend.

The monthly Coppock indicator has turned up below zero, signaling the start of a bull market. 
Twiggs Money Flow (100) has crossed to above zero after a lengthy period of distribution.
MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line and has completed a bullish trough above zero; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is above its signal line; and Twiggs Money Flow (21) signals accumulation.




Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the All Ords is above 3050.
Intermediate: Long if the All Ords is above 3050. The primary trend has turned upwards.
Long-term: Long if the All Ords is above 3050. The primary trend reversal has confirmed the follow through bull signal from March 18.


Sector Analysis
Changes are highlighted in bold.
  • Energy [XEJ] - stage 1 (RS is level)
  • Materials [XMJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)
  • Industrials [XNJ] - stage 1 (RS is falling)
  • Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 1 (RS is level)
  • Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Health Care [XHJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
  • Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Financial excl. Property Trusts [XXJ] - stage 2 (RS is level)
  • Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
  • Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 4 (RS is level)
  • Utilities [XUJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)




The Financial sector index [XXJ] completed an inverted head and shoulders with a close above the neckline at [e]. The head is at [b] and the shoulders at [a] and [d].


Sectors: Relative Strength
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) is at 56 stocks (compared to 131 on April 11, 2003; and 8 on March 14, 2003).
  • Banks (6)
  • REITs (4)
  • Diversified Financial (3)
  • Steel (3)


Daily Trading Diary
Stocks analyzed during the week were:
  • Westpac - WBC
  • National Australia Bank - NAB
  • Coles Myer - CML
  • Chemeq - CMQ





Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers.

Colin Twiggs


A mathematician is a blind man in a dark room
looking for a black cat which isn't there.

- Charles Darwin.


Incredible Charts Tip
If you have used Zoom on a chart, depress the ALT key before using the Crosshairs.

To activate Crosshairs, select View >> Crosshair Cursor






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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.