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Trading Diary
June 11, 2003
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading
and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms
and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow rallied 1.4% to 9183 but on low volume. Another close above the 9000 support level further reduces the likelihood of a false (marginal) break.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary up-trend is up.
The Dow rallied 1.4% to 9183 but on low volume. Another close above the 9000 support level further reduces the likelihood of a false (marginal) break.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary up-trend is up.
The S&P 500 again tested the symbolic 1000 level, closing up
13 points at 997.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.
The Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.1% to close at 1646.
The intermediate trend is up.
The index is in a primary up-trend.
The intermediate trend is up.
The index is in a primary up-trend.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator eased
slightly to 72.08% on June 10; a 3-box reversal would be a strong
bear signal.
Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P 500 is above 984.
Intermediate: Long if the S&P is above 1000.
Long-term: Long - the S&P 500 primary trend has turned upwards after two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the April 3 NYSE Bullish % signal.
Intermediate: Long if the S&P is above 1000.
Long-term: Long - the S&P 500 primary trend has turned upwards after two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the April 3 NYSE Bullish % signal.
Fed Beige Book
The "Beige Book" did not have much positive to say about the state of the economy, increasing hopes for a further rate cut from the June 24/25th Fed meeting. (more)
The "Beige Book" did not have much positive to say about the state of the economy, increasing hopes for a further rate cut from the June 24/25th Fed meeting. (more)
Gold
New York (17.03): Spot gold rose to $US 354.40.
On the five-year chart gold is above the long-term upward trendline.
New York (17.03): Spot gold rose to $US 354.40.
On the five-year chart gold is above the long-term upward trendline.
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries tested resistance at 3050 before retreating to
close at 3037, up 14 points on strong volume.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is down. A close above 3050 will signal an up-trend.
The monthly Coppock indicator has turned up below zero, signaling the start of a bull market.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals accumulation.
MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is above; and Twiggs Money Flow (21) has completed a second bullish trough above zero.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is down. A close above 3050 will signal an up-trend.
The monthly Coppock indicator has turned up below zero, signaling the start of a bull market.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals accumulation.
MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is above; and Twiggs Money Flow (21) has completed a second bullish trough above zero.
Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the All Ords is above 3021; take short
positions if the XAO falls below 2908.
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up ( closes above 3050 ); short if the XAO is below 2908.
Long-term: There is already a bull signal: the March 18 follow through. Wait for confirmation from a primary trend reversal.
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up ( closes above 3050 ); short if the XAO is below 2908.
Long-term: There is already a bull signal: the March 18 follow through. Wait for confirmation from a primary trend reversal.
Coles Myer [CML]
CML has been threatening to break out from a broad base for the past two months.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals accumulation and MACD (26,12,9) has completed a bullish trough above zero [+].
CML has been threatening to break out from a broad base for the past two months.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) signals accumulation and MACD (26,12,9) has completed a bullish trough above zero [+].
On May 6 [e] I said that a break below 6.50, the high of [b] and
low of [d], would be bearish.
The following day, price broke below the support level on strong volume.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) has since shown a strong rise above zero and Twiggs Money Flow (21) signals accumulation.
The following day, price broke below the support level on strong volume.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) has since shown a strong rise above zero and Twiggs Money Flow (21) signals accumulation.
The next bar [f] ended with a weak close on lower volume,
signaling that the down-swing had lost momentum. This does not
mean that you immediately become a bull; but patiently wait and
gather evidence.
The following rally was very weak. Then CML consolidated in a narrow range below the resistance level; a bullish sign.
Finally, at [g] we receive confirmation with a break above the previous high on stronger volume.
The subsequent rally encountered selling pressure with square bars at [h].
The pull-back to support continues to show square bars, indicating strong buying absorbing the selling pressure.
The dry-up of volume at [i] is a bull signal. A buy-stop can be placed above the high; with a stop-loss a few ticks below 6.60.
The following rally was very weak. Then CML consolidated in a narrow range below the resistance level; a bullish sign.
Finally, at [g] we receive confirmation with a break above the previous high on stronger volume.
The subsequent rally encountered selling pressure with square bars at [h].
The pull-back to support continues to show square bars, indicating strong buying absorbing the selling pressure.
The dry-up of volume at [i] is a bull signal. A buy-stop can be placed above the high; with a stop-loss a few ticks below 6.60.
CML continues to encounter selling pressure at 7.00, evidenced by
the broad bar at [j].
A close above 7.00 will be a bull signal.
Consolidation between 6.60 and 7.00 would be a long-term bull signal.
A close below 6.60 would be bearish.
A close above 7.00 will be a bull signal.
Consolidation between 6.60 and 7.00 would be a long-term bull signal.
A close below 6.60 would be bearish.
Understanding
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers.
Colin Twiggs
Do you have the patience to
wait
till the mud settles and the water is clear?
Can you remain unmoving
till the right action arises by itself?
- Lao Tse.
till the mud settles and the water is clear?
Can you remain unmoving
till the right action arises by itself?
- Lao Tse.
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Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.