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Trading Diary
May 28, 2003
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading
and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms
and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use .
USA
In a volatile day the Dow rallied early before retreating to close slightly higher at 8793 on strong volume.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is down; a close above 9076 will signal a reversal.
In a volatile day the Dow rallied early before retreating to close slightly higher at 8793 on strong volume.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is down; a close above 9076 will signal a reversal.
The S&P 500 rallied to 959 but then retreated to close 2
points higher at 953, below resistance at the high of [a].
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is down; a close above 954 will signal an up-trend.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is down; a close above 954 will signal an up-trend.
The Nasdaq Composite fared slightly better, gaining 0.4% to close
at 1563.
The intermediate trend is up.
The index is in a primary up-trend.
The intermediate trend is up.
The index is in a primary up-trend.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator rose to
63.24% on May 27; following a Bull
Correction buy signal (April 3).
Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P 500 rises above 954.
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up (S&P closes above 954).
Long-term: There are already two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the April 3 NYSE Bullish % signal. Go long if the S&P 500 primary trend turns upwards.
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up (S&P closes above 954).
Long-term: There are already two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the April 3 NYSE Bullish % signal. Go long if the S&P 500 primary trend turns upwards.
Economy still in a "soft patch"
San Francisco Fed President Robert Parry says: "the economy is still mired in the soft patch we hit last fall" but should experience a "modest pickup" in the second half of the year. Some economists believe that a further rate cut may be necessary to boost the recovery. (more)
San Francisco Fed President Robert Parry says: "the economy is still mired in the soft patch we hit last fall" but should experience a "modest pickup" in the second half of the year. Some economists believe that a further rate cut may be necessary to boost the recovery. (more)
Gold
New York (17.28): Spot gold eased further, to $US 363.70.
On the five-year chart gold has respected the long-term upward trendline.
New York (17.28): Spot gold eased further, to $US 363.70.
On the five-year chart gold has respected the long-term upward trendline.
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries rallied on strong volume, closing up 25 points
at 2976.
The intermediate trend reversed back up, with a rise above 2973.
The primary trend is down. A rise above 3062 will signal an up-trend.
MACD (26,12,9) has crossed to above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is above; and Twiggs Money Flow (21) shows accumulation.
The intermediate trend reversed back up, with a rise above 2973.
The primary trend is down. A rise above 3062 will signal an up-trend.
MACD (26,12,9) has crossed to above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is above; and Twiggs Money Flow (21) shows accumulation.
Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the All Ords is above 2973; short if the XAO
falls below 2908.
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up ( crosses above 3062 ); short if the XAO is below 2908.
Long-term: There is already a bull signal: the March 18 follow through. Wait for confirmation from a primary trend reversal.
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up ( crosses above 3062 ); short if the XAO is below 2908.
Long-term: There is already a bull signal: the March 18 follow through. Wait for confirmation from a primary trend reversal.
Fairfax [FXJ]
Last covered on May 28, 2002.
FXJ is forming a stage 1 base after a lengthy down-trend.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) has risen above zero, signaling accumulation, after a bullish divergence.
Last covered on May 28, 2002.
FXJ is forming a stage 1 base after a lengthy down-trend.
Twiggs Money Flow (100) has risen above zero, signaling accumulation, after a bullish divergence.
On the daily chart, FXJ has formed a double bottom at [5] and [7]
after an earlier low at [1].
The weak closes at [5] and [7] on high volume signal accumulation.
Overhead resistance is strong, with levels at 3.10 [6], 3.20 [4] and 3.30 [2].
The latest rally shows a weak close at [8] on moderate volume; a sign that price may re-test support at 2.80.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is level but MACD is rising; Twiggs Money Flow (21) signals accumulation.
The weak closes at [5] and [7] on high volume signal accumulation.
Overhead resistance is strong, with levels at 3.10 [6], 3.20 [4] and 3.30 [2].
The latest rally shows a weak close at [8] on moderate volume; a sign that price may re-test support at 2.80.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is level but MACD is rising; Twiggs Money Flow (21) signals accumulation.
A rise above 3.10 will be a bull signal for short-term trades;
while a rise above 3.30 will be a long-term bull signal.
A close below 2.80 will be bearish.
A close below 2.80 will be bearish.
Understanding
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers.
Colin Twiggs
I believe a leaf of grass is no less
than the journeywork of the stars.
- Walt Whitman
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Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.