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Trading Diary
May 27, 2003
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading
and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms
and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow made another follow through day, closing up more than 2.0% at 8781 on strong volume.
The intermediate trend is up. The rise above 8766 signals continuation.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 9076 will signal a reversal.
The Dow made another follow through day, closing up more than 2.0% at 8781 on strong volume.
The intermediate trend is up. The rise above 8766 signals continuation.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 9076 will signal a reversal.
The S&P 500 rallied 2.0% to close at
951.
The intermediate trend is up. The rise above 948 signals continuation.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 954 will signal an up-trend.
The intermediate trend is up. The rise above 948 signals continuation.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 954 will signal an up-trend.
The Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.0% to close at
1556.
The intermediate trend is up. The rise above 1552 signals continuation.
The index is in a primary up-trend.
The intermediate trend is up. The rise above 1552 signals continuation.
The index is in a primary up-trend.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is at 62.56% on
May 23; following a Bull
Correction buy signal (April 3).
Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P 500 rises above
954.
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up (S&P rises above 954).
Long-term: There are already two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the April 3 NYSE Bullish % signal. Long if the S&P 500 primary trend turns upwards.
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up (S&P rises above 954).
Long-term: There are already two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the April 3 NYSE Bullish % signal. Long if the S&P 500 primary trend turns upwards.
Tech confidence boost
A better than expected consumer confidence report boosted tech stocks, including blue chips Microsoft, IBM and Dell. (more)
A better than expected consumer confidence report boosted tech stocks, including blue chips Microsoft, IBM and Dell. (more)
Gold
New York (18.15): Spot gold dropped sharply, currently trading at $US 365.20.
On the five-year chart gold has respected the long-term upward trendline.
New York (18.15): Spot gold dropped sharply, currently trading at $US 365.20.
On the five-year chart gold has respected the long-term upward trendline.
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries lost 14 points to close at
2951 on higher volume. The index is likely to rally on the back
of the US performance.
The intermediate trend is down but on a weak signal. A rise above 2973 will signal reversal.
The primary trend is down. A rise above 3062 will signal an up-trend.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has crossed to above its signal line; Twiggs Money Flow (21) shows bullish accumulation; MACD (26,12,9) is still below its signal line.
The intermediate trend is down but on a weak signal. A rise above 2973 will signal reversal.
The primary trend is down. A rise above 3062 will signal an up-trend.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has crossed to above its signal line; Twiggs Money Flow (21) shows bullish accumulation; MACD (26,12,9) is still below its signal line.
Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the All Ords rises above
2973; short if the XAO falls below 2908.
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up ( crosses above 3062 ); short if the XAO is below 2908.
Long-term: There is already a bull signal: the March 18 follow through. Wait for confirmation from a primary trend reversal.
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up ( crosses above 3062 ); short if the XAO is below 2908.
Long-term: There is already a bull signal: the March 18 follow through. Wait for confirmation from a primary trend reversal.
Oil Search [OSH]
Last covered on April 22, 2003.
I find that the 3-Month % Of High stock screen turns up a number of breakouts from stage 1 bases. OSH has formed a broad base after a lengthy down-trend. Twiggs Money Flow (100) has climbed above zero, signaling accumulation.
Last covered on April 22, 2003.
I find that the 3-Month % Of High stock screen turns up a number of breakouts from stage 1 bases. OSH has formed a broad base after a lengthy down-trend. Twiggs Money Flow (100) has climbed above zero, signaling accumulation.
On the weekly chart, OSH has formed a double
bottom at [c] and [e]. Possibly a triple bottom if one considers
[a].
The pattern is completed by a breakout at [f].
Note the higher volume at [c] and [f], with a lower spike at [e].
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) and MACD are rising; Twiggs Money Flow (21) respected the zero line, a strong bull signal.
The pattern is completed by a breakout at [f].
Note the higher volume at [c] and [f], with a lower spike at [e].
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) and MACD are rising; Twiggs Money Flow (21) respected the zero line, a strong bull signal.
The equivolume chart highlights the cathartic
"shake out" at [c] and the lower volume at the second bottom at
[e].
The rally to [f] shows strong volume, but some weak closes indicate selling into the rally.
Volume at [1], after the breakout, appears thin.
The rally to [f] shows strong volume, but some weak closes indicate selling into the rally.
Volume at [1], after the breakout, appears thin.
Conservative traders will wait for a pull-back
which respects the support line at 0.73, the high of [d], before
taking long entries.
This presents an opportunity to place tight stops just below the low of the pull-back.
A break below 0.69, the low of [f], would be bearish, signaling a re-test of the base support levels.
This presents an opportunity to place tight stops just below the low of the pull-back.
A break below 0.69, the low of [f], would be bearish, signaling a re-test of the base support levels.
Understanding
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers.
Colin Twiggs
The power of acute observation
is commonly called cynicism
by those who have not got it.
- George Bernard Shaw
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Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.