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Trading Diary
May 26, 2003
The market is closed Monday for Memorial Day.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator climbed to 62.56% on May 23; following a Bull Correction buy signal (April 3).
Long-term: There are already two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the April 3 NYSE Bullish % signal. Wait for confirmation from a Dow/S&P primary trend reversal.
New York (12.00): Spot gold closed early at $US 370.80.
On the five-year chart gold has respected the long-term upward trendline.
The intermediate trend is down but on a weak signal. A rise above 2984 will signal reversal.
The primary trend is down. A rise above 3062 will signal an up-trend.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has crossed to above its signal line; Twiggs Money Flow (21) shows a bullish signal, respecting the zero line at [+]; MACD (26,12,9) is below its signal line but threatens to complete a similar signal to TMF.
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up ( crosses above 3062 ); short if the XAO is below 2908.
Long-term: There is already a bull signal: the March 18 follow through. Wait for confirmation from a primary trend reversal.
Last covered on May 21, 2003.
SMS broke below support at [d], completing an intermediate double top reversal, from [b] and [c]. The stock has since pulled back to test resistance at 8.50. The first 2 days were on lower volume but the third day closed above 8.50 on slightly higher volume.
The close above resistance signals that the pattern is weak and a further higher close will indicate failure.
The world is full of magical things
patiently waiting for our wits to grow sharper.
- Bertrand Russell
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Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.