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Trading Diary
May 19, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow fell more than 2% to close at 8493 on lower volume; breaking below the pennant pattern.
The intermediate upward trendline has been broken, signaling weakness.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 9076 will signal a reversal.

The S&P 500 pulled back sharply, closing 24 points lower at 920.
The intermediate upward trendline is broken, signaling weakness.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 954 will signal an up-trend.

The Nasdaq Composite also broke its intermediate trendline, closing 3% down at 1492.
The intermediate trend is up, but weakening.
The index is in a primary up-trend.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator climbed to 61.29% on May 16, following a Bull Correction buy signal on April 3. 

Market Strategy
Short-term: Short if the S&P intermediate trend reverses down (or falls below 898).
Intermediate: Long if the Dow/S&P primary trend turns upwards; short if the intermediate trend (S&P) reverses down.
Long-term: There are already two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the April 3 NYSE Bullish % signal. Wait for confirmation from a Dow/S&P primary trend reversal.


Dollar slide affects market
Treasury Secretary John Snow's comments imply that the US government is comfortable with a weaker dollar. (more)




Gold
New York (18.35): Spot gold has surged to $US 365.80.
On the five-year chart gold has respected the long-term upward trendline.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries closed 1 point lower at 2923 on average volume. Long shadows for the last three trading days signal buying support, but this may evaporate after the sharp correction in the US market.
The intermediate up-trend is weak and a close below 2909 will signal a reversal.
The primary trend is down. A rise above 3062 will signal an up-trend.

MACD (26,12,9) is below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below; Twiggs Money Flow (21) is weakening.





Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the All Ords rises above 2926; short if the XAO falls below 2909.
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up (XAO above 3062); short if the intermediate trend reverses down (falls below 2909).
Long-term: There is already a bull signal: the March 18 follow through. Wait for confirmation from a primary trend reversal.


Symex Holdings [SYM]
SYM has formed a new 3-month high [d] after a broad base, following a steep stage 4 down-trend.

Note the sharp downward spike at [a] accompanied by huge volume - commonly referred to as a shakeout. This normally establishes a strong support level for the stock, evident on the chart below. SYM re-tested support at [b] after an initial rally had formed a vulnerable V-bottom. And we now have a break above the high of [c], signaling an up-turn.





MACD shows a strong bullish divergence and Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) signals accumulation. 





Resistance is evident at 0.87 on the equivolume chart, with strong selling into the rally at [1]. SYM then tested support, reflected by the over-square bar at [2], before rallying above the previous high.
The power bar at [3] shows a healthy breakout and the pull-back at [5] only lasted one day. 
The subsequent rally at [6] is on thin volume and closed back at 0.90; we may encounter further consolidation before the rally continues. 





Consolidation above 0.87 will be a bullish sign.
A close below the support level would be bearish.





New! Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers.

Colin Twiggs


In times of change, learners inherit the earth,
while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped
to deal with a world that no longer exists.

- Eric Hoffer.



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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.