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Trading Diary
May 15, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .

USA

The Dow forms a small pennant continuation pattern, rallying 0.7% to close at 8713 on higher volume.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 9076 will signal a reversal.

The S&P 500 gained 7 points to close at 946.
The intermediate up-trend continues.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 954 will signal an up-trend.

The Nasdaq Composite rallied more than 1% to close at 1551.
The intermediate trend is up.
The index is in a primary up-trend.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator increased to 59.95% on May 14, following a Bull Correction buy signal on April 3. 

Market Strategy

Short-term: Long if the S&P 500 is above 948; short if the S&P intermediate trend reverses down (or falls below 898).

Intermediate: Long only when the Dow/S&P primary trend turns upwards; short if the intermediate trend (S&P) reverses down.
Long-term: There are already two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the April 3 NYSE Bullish % signal. Wait for confirmation from a Dow/S&P primary trend reversal.

Gold
New York (18.08): Spot gold has retreated to $US 351.40.
On the five-year chart gold has respected the long-term upward trendline.

ASX Australia

The All Ordinaries lost 12 points to close at 2931. The long shadow, strong volume and positive performance of the US market are bullish factors; the index may still hold above the 2909 support level.
The intermediate trend is up; a close below 2909 will signal a reversal.
The primary trend is down. A rise above 3062 will signal an up-trend.

MACD (26,12,9) is below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has crossed back below; Twiggs Money Flow (21) is weakening.

Market Strategy

Short-term: Long if the All Ords rises above 2943; short if the XAO falls below 2909.
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up (XAO above 3062); short if the intermediate trend reverses down (falls below 2909).
Long-term: There is already a bull signal: the March 18 follow through. Wait for confirmation from a primary trend reversal.

Tabcorp Holdings [TAH]
Last covered on April 23, 2003.
After rallying to test resistance at 11.00 [d], TAH has retreated to below the long-term moving average.

Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) has failed to cross above zero and signals strong distribution. 
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) and MACD have turned downwards.

The equivolume chart shows that TAH penetrated resistance at [d] but then gapped back below at [1] on strong volume.
This was followed by a period of consolidation on lower volume and some short-term traders may have entered on a rise above the high of [2]. The rally to [3] was on thin volume and price then retreated below support at [4]; knocking out stops placed below the low of [2].

A break below 10.45, the high of [c], would be a strong bear signal.

Consolidation above 10.45 would be a bullish sign and may signal that another attempt at 11.00 resistance is likely.

New! Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers.

Colin Twiggs

One should count each day a separate life.

- Seneca (4BC to 65AD).

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