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The Daily Trading Diary will only be available to Premium members.
We have extended the cut-off until mid-May - to fit in with the introduction of US charts.
Trading Diary
May 14, 2003
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading
and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms
and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow retreated 0.4% to close at 8647 on
average volume.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 9076 [a] will signal a reversal.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 9076 [a] will signal a reversal.
The S&P 500 lost 3 points to close at
939.
The intermediate up-trend continues.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 954 will signal an up-trend.
The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.3% to close at 1534.
The intermediate trend is up.
The break above 1521 provides clear confirmation that the index is in a primary up-trend.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator continues to climb, reaching 59.47% on May 13, following a Bull Correction buy signal on April 3.
The intermediate up-trend continues.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 954 will signal an up-trend.
The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.3% to close at 1534.
The intermediate trend is up.
The break above 1521 provides clear confirmation that the index is in a primary up-trend.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator continues to climb, reaching 59.47% on May 13, following a Bull Correction buy signal on April 3.
Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P 500 is above
947; short if the S&P intermediate trend reverses down (or
falls below 898).
Intermediate: Long if the Dow/S&P primary
trend turns upwards; short if the intermediate trend (S&P)
reverses down.
Long-term: There are already two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the April 3 NYSE Bullish % signal. Wait for confirmation from a Dow/S&P primary trend reversal.
Long-term: There are already two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the April 3 NYSE Bullish % signal. Wait for confirmation from a Dow/S&P primary trend reversal.
Gold
New York (17.56): Spot gold is back up at $US 352.30.
On the five-year chart gold has respected the long-term upward trendline.
New York (17.56): Spot gold is back up at $US 352.30.
On the five-year chart gold has respected the long-term upward trendline.
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries lost 9 points to close at 2952 on average
volume.
The intermediate up-trend is weak; a close below 2909 will signal a reversal.
The primary trend is down. A rise above 3062 will signal an up-trend.
MACD (26,12,9) is below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has crossed to above; Twiggs Money Flow (21) is weakening.
The intermediate up-trend is weak; a close below 2909 will signal a reversal.
The primary trend is down. A rise above 3062 will signal an up-trend.
MACD (26,12,9) is below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has crossed to above; Twiggs Money Flow (21) is weakening.
Market Strategy
Short-term: Short if the XAO is below 2939.
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up (XAO above 3062); short if the intermediate trend reverses down (falls below 2909).
Long-term: There is already a bull signal: the March 18 follow through. Wait for confirmation from a primary trend reversal.
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up (XAO above 3062); short if the intermediate trend reverses down (falls below 2909).
Long-term: There is already a bull signal: the March 18 follow through. Wait for confirmation from a primary trend reversal.
Telecom New Zealand [TEL]
TEL is building a broad stage 1 base, from [4] to [13], after a lengthy stage 4 down-trend.
The stock made a marginal break below support at [13] before rallying to test resistance at 4.40.
Twiggs Money Flow (100-day) signals strong accumulation.
TEL is building a broad stage 1 base, from [4] to [13], after a lengthy stage 4 down-trend.
The stock made a marginal break below support at [13] before rallying to test resistance at 4.40.
Twiggs Money Flow (100-day) signals strong accumulation.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is rising; MACD and Twiggs
Money Flow (21-day) are bullish.
The equivolume chart shows that TEL made several tests of resistance at 4.30, from [b] to [e], before price gapped up at [f].
The pull-back to [g] shows signs of ending and there may be entry opportunities (short-term) if TEL rises above 4.41.
The equivolume chart shows that TEL made several tests of resistance at 4.30, from [b] to [e], before price gapped up at [f].
The pull-back to [g] shows signs of ending and there may be entry opportunities (short-term) if TEL rises above 4.41.
Even if price pulls back further, there may
still be entry opportunities provided that:
Longer-term traders may prefer to wait for a break above resistance at 4.60.
- the pull-back is short;
- on low volume; and
- respects support at 4.30.
Longer-term traders may prefer to wait for a break above resistance at 4.60.
New! Understanding
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers.
Colin Twiggs
Millions saw the apple fall,
but Newton was the one who asked why.
- Bernard Baruch.
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Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.