Become a Premium member for
only $180 (AUD).
Subscribe by 31 May 2003.
The Daily Trading Diary will only be available to Premium members.
We have extended the cut-off until mid-May - to fit in with the introduction of US charts.
Subscribe by 31 May 2003.
The Daily Trading Diary will only be available to Premium members.
We have extended the cut-off until mid-May - to fit in with the introduction of US charts.
Trading Diary
May 8, 2003
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading
and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms
and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow lost 0.8% to close at 8491 on lower
volume.
The intermediate trend is down. I prefer to wait for a clear break above resistance (8600) to signal the start of an up-trend. A fall below 8328 will signal continuation.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 9076 will signal a reversal.
The S&P 500 fell 9 points to close at 920.
The slow intermediate up-trend continues, with resistance overhead at 935.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 954 will signal a reversal.
The Nasdaq Composite retreated 1.1% to close at 1489.
The intermediate trend is up, with resistance overhead at 1521.
The primary trend is up.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator continues to rise, reaching 56.99% on May 7, following a Bull Correction buy signal on April 3.
The intermediate trend is down. I prefer to wait for a clear break above resistance (8600) to signal the start of an up-trend. A fall below 8328 will signal continuation.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 9076 will signal a reversal.
The S&P 500 fell 9 points to close at 920.
The slow intermediate up-trend continues, with resistance overhead at 935.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 954 will signal a reversal.
The Nasdaq Composite retreated 1.1% to close at 1489.
The intermediate trend is up, with resistance overhead at 1521.
The primary trend is up.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator continues to rise, reaching 56.99% on May 7, following a Bull Correction buy signal on April 3.
Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P 500 rises above
929; short if the S&P intermediate trend reverses down (or
falls below 897).
Intermediate: Long only when the Dow/S&P
primary trend reverses upwards; short if the intermediate trend
(S&P) reverses down.
Long-term: There are already two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the April 3 NYSE Bullish % signal. Wait for confirmation from a Dow/S&P primary trend reversal.
Long-term: There are already two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the April 3 NYSE Bullish % signal. Wait for confirmation from a Dow/S&P primary trend reversal.
Jobless claims fall
New jobless claims fell to 425,000 for the week ended May 3; below expectations but still above the 400,000 benchmark. (more)
New jobless claims fell to 425,000 for the week ended May 3; below expectations but still above the 400,000 benchmark. (more)
Gold
New York (16.44): Spot gold rallied strongly to $US 348.10.
On the five-year chart gold has respected the long-term upward trendline.
New York (16.44): Spot gold rallied strongly to $US 348.10.
On the five-year chart gold has respected the long-term upward trendline.
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries penetrated support at 2926 before recovering
to close at 2928 on above-average volume; down 16 points.
The intermediate up-trend is weakening; a break below Monday's low of 2926 will signal a reversal.
The primary trend is down. A rise above 3062 will signal reversal to an up-trend.
MACD (26,12,9) and Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) are below their signal lines and the Stochastic has fallen below 80%, a further bear signal; Twiggs Money Flow (21) is falling.
The intermediate up-trend is weakening; a break below Monday's low of 2926 will signal a reversal.
The primary trend is down. A rise above 3062 will signal reversal to an up-trend.
MACD (26,12,9) and Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) are below their signal lines and the Stochastic has fallen below 80%, a further bear signal; Twiggs Money Flow (21) is falling.
Market Strategy
Short-term: Short if the XAO falls below 2926.
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up (XAO above
3062); short if the XAO falls below 2926.
Long-term: There is already a bull signal: the March 18 follow through. Wait for confirmation from a primary trend reversal.
Long-term: There is already a bull signal: the March 18 follow through. Wait for confirmation from a primary trend reversal.
Banks
The financial index (excl. property) XXJ displays a strong bear signal, with a break below support at [1] after a weak rally at [2].
The financial index (excl. property) XXJ displays a strong bear signal, with a break below support at [1] after a weak rally at [2].
The sector includes AMP, however, and we should look at the
individual charts to see how the rest are faring.
Both ANZ and Westpac appear to have encountered resistance.
Examining weekly volume, we can see that volume declined towards the end of the last rally.
Examining weekly volume, we can see that volume declined towards the end of the last rally.
Similar declines can be observed on CBA and NAB.
We may see a re-test of support before the sector makes further
gains.
New! Understanding
the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further
assistance to readers.
Colin Twiggs
History may not repeat itself, but it does
rhyme a lot.
- Samuel L Clemens (Mark Twain).
Back Issues
Click here to access the Trading Diary Archives.
Click here to access the Trading Diary Archives.
Back Issues
Access the Trading Diary Archives.
Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.