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Trading Diary
April 28, 2003
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading
and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms
and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow continues the bullish ascending
triangle, rising 2% to close at 8471, but on lower volume.
The intermediate trend is down. A rise above 8587 will signal reversal to an up-trend; a fall below 8109 will signal continuation.
March 17th's follow through remains valid (as long as the index holds above 7763).
The primary trend is down; a rise above 9076 will signal a reversal.
The Nasdaq Composite rallied 28 points to close at 1462.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.
The S&P 500 gained 16 points to close at 914.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 954 will signal a reversal.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is at 50.37% (April 25), after completing a Bull Correction buy signal.
The intermediate trend is down. A rise above 8587 will signal reversal to an up-trend; a fall below 8109 will signal continuation.
March 17th's follow through remains valid (as long as the index holds above 7763).
The primary trend is down; a rise above 9076 will signal a reversal.
The Nasdaq Composite rallied 28 points to close at 1462.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.
The S&P 500 gained 16 points to close at 914.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 954 will signal a reversal.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is at 50.37% (April 25), after completing a Bull Correction buy signal.
Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the S&P 500 is above
911; short if the intermediate trend reverses down.
Intermediate: Long if the Dow/S&P primary
trend reverses upwards; short if the intermediate trend (S&P)
reverses down.
Long-term: There are already two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the NYSE Bullish % signal. Wait for confirmation from a Dow/S&P primary trend reversal.
Long-term: There are already two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the NYSE Bullish % signal. Wait for confirmation from a Dow/S&P primary trend reversal.
Personal incomes and consumer spending
rise
Personal income and consumer spending both increased by 0.4% in March but the rise fell short of analysts' expectations. (more)
Personal income and consumer spending both increased by 0.4% in March but the rise fell short of analysts' expectations. (more)
Gold
New York (18.12): Spot gold is at $US 333.40.
New York (18.12): Spot gold is at $US 333.40.
ASX Australia
The ASX closed down 27 points at 2935 on lower volume, testing
the intermediate trendline.
The intermediate trend is up and we are unlikely to see a reversal while the US market is rallying strongly.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 3062 will signal a reversal.
MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below; Twiggs Money Flow (21) has crossed below the upward trendline but still signals accumulation.
The intermediate trend is up and we are unlikely to see a reversal while the US market is rallying strongly.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 3062 will signal a reversal.
MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below; Twiggs Money Flow (21) has crossed below the upward trendline but still signals accumulation.
Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the index rises above 2948; short if the
intermediate trend reverses (or XAO falls below 2888).
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up (XAO above
3062); short if the intermediate trend reverses.
Long-term: There is already a bull signal: the March 18 follow through. Wait for confirmation from a primary trend reversal.
Long-term: There is already a bull signal: the March 18 follow through. Wait for confirmation from a primary trend reversal.
Consumer Staples
Consumer Staples are showing signs of recovery. Apart from BPC, the two leading stocks are
Woolworths and
Foodland.
Consumer Staples are showing signs of recovery. Apart from BPC, the two leading stocks are
Woolworths and
Foodland.
Both stocks show Stage 3 consolidations.
And, on both stocks, 100-day Twiggs Money Flow signals is
bullish.
But both face overhead resistance: WOW at 13.50 and FOA at 20.00.
This will have to be overcome before we can be sure that the two
have resumed a stage 2 up-trend.
Colin Twiggs
If you fail to plan,
you plan to fail.
- Philip Kotler
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Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.