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Trading Diary
April 28, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .

USA

The Dow continues the bullish ascending triangle, rising 2% to close at 8471, but on lower volume.
The intermediate trend is down. A rise above 8587 will signal reversal to an up-trend; a fall below 8109 will signal continuation.
March 17th's follow through remains valid (as long as the index holds above 7763).
The primary trend is down; a rise above 9076 will signal a reversal.

The Nasdaq Composite rallied 28 points to close at 1462.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is up.

The S&P 500 gained 16 points to close at 914.
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 954 will signal a reversal.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is at 50.37% (April 25), after completing a Bull Correction buy signal. 

Market Strategy

Short-term: Long if the S&P 500 is above 911; short if the intermediate trend reverses down.

Intermediate: Long if the Dow/S&P primary trend reverses upwards; short if the intermediate trend (S&P) reverses down.
Long-term: There are already two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the NYSE Bullish % signal. Wait for confirmation from a Dow/S&P primary trend reversal.

Personal incomes and consumer spending rise
Personal income and consumer spending both increased by 0.4% in March but the rise fell short of analysts' expectations. (more)

Gold
New York (18.12): Spot gold is at $US 333.40.

ASX Australia

The ASX closed down 27 points at 2935 on lower volume, testing the intermediate trendline. 
The intermediate trend is up and we are unlikely to see a reversal while the US market is rallying strongly.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 3062 will signal a reversal.

MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below; Twiggs Money Flow (21) has crossed below the upward trendline but still signals accumulation.

Market Strategy

Short-term: Long if the index rises above 2948; short if the intermediate trend reverses (or XAO falls below 2888).

Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up (XAO above 3062); short if the intermediate trend reverses.
Long-term: There is already a bull signal: the March 18 follow through. Wait for confirmation from a primary trend reversal.

Consumer Staples
Consumer Staples are showing signs of recovery. Apart from BPC, the two leading stocks are
Woolworths and
Foodland. 

Both stocks show Stage 3 consolidations.

 And, on both stocks, 100-day Twiggs Money Flow signals is bullish.

But both face overhead resistance: WOW at 13.50 and FOA at 20.00. This will have to be overcome before we can be sure that the two have resumed a stage 2 up-trend.

Colin Twiggs

If you fail to plan,
you plan to fail.

- Philip Kotler

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