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Trading Diary
April 23, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .

The Dow encountered resistance above 8500, closing only 0.36% up at 8515 on higher volume. The index is testing the upper border of the bullish ascending triangle from the last 5 weeks.
The intermediate trend is down. A rise above 8552 will signal reversal to an up-trend; a fall below 8109 will signal continuation.
March 17th's follow through remains valid (as long as the index holds above 7763).
The primary trend is down; a rise above 9076 will signal a reversal.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.0% to close at 1466.
The intermediate trend is in an up-trend.
The primary trend is up.

The S&P 500 climbed a further 9 points to close at 919.
The intermediate trend is in an up-trend.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 954 will signal a reversal.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator climbed to 50% (April 22), after completing a Bull Correction buy signal. 

Market Strategy
Short-term: Long as long as the S&P 500 holds above 904.
Intermediate: Long only when the Dow/S&P primary trend reverses upwards; short if the Dow falls below 8109 (S&P: 862).
Long-term: There are already two bull signals: the March 17 follow through day and the NYSE Bullish % signal. Wait for confirmation from a Dow/S&P primary trend reversal.

Is the market stuck in a range?
There is a widely-held view that the market is ranging, but is this correct? (more)

New York (17.36): Spot gold eased to $US 330.90.

ASX Australia
The ASX broke through resistance to close up 22 points at 2964. Continued low volume signals a lack of commitment from buyers. 
The intermediate trend is up.
The primary trend is down; a rise above 3062 will signal a reversal.

MACD (26,12,9) and Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) are above their signal lines; Twiggs Money Flow (21) signals accumulation.

Market Strategy
Short-term: Long if the index holds above 2948 (keep stops tight in case this is a false break); short if the index falls below 2888.
Intermediate: Long if the primary trend reverses up (XAO above 3062); short if the intermediate trend reverses down (below 2888).
Long-term: There is already a bull signal: the March 18 follow through day. Wait for confirmation from the primary trend reversal.

Tabcorp Holdings [TAH]
Last covered on December 13, 2002.
Several stocks in the Casinos & Gaming sector have started trending upwards.
The weekly chart shows that TAH has broken above its long-term downward trendline. The primary trend will reverse up if price breaks above resistance at 10.90.

Twiggs Money Flow (100-day) signals distribution, but the 21-day indicator shows a strong bullish divergence.

Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is rising and MACD shows a bullish divergence at [6] and [8].

The equivolume chart shows multiple higher lows at [8], [10], [12] and [14] -- a bullish signal. Volume confirmation is fairly weak with strong volume on weak closes at [7] and from [11] to [12]; and weak volume at [19].

A pull-back below resistance at 10.93 may present opportunities for short-term traders. Long entries can be taken on a short duration pull-back with light volume.

A fall below 10.40 would be bearish.

New! Understanding the Trading Diary has been expanded to offer further assistance to readers.
Colin Twiggs

Our plans miscarry because they have no aim.
When a man does not know what harbor he is making for,
no wind is the right wind.

- Seneca.

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