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Trading Diary
April 7, 2003
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading
and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms
and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow shows a gravestone
reversal signal, testing resistance at 8500 before retreating to
close at 8300. The index was up 0.3% on higher volume.
Monday 17th's follow through signal remains valid (as long as the index holds above 7763).
The intermediate cycle is down; a rise above 8552 will signal a reversal; a fall below 7903 will signal continuation.
The primary trend is down.
The Nasdaq Composite formed an open-close reversal: the index gapped up at the opening to reach a high of 1430, but retreated sharply to close only 6 points up at 1389.
The intermediate trend is down; a rise above 1430 will signal a reversal.
The primary trend is up.
The S&P 500 also shows a gravestone reversal, closing 1 point higher at 879.
The intermediate trend is down, until the index breaks above 895.
The primary trend is down.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is at 44% (April 4), after a Bull Correction buy signal.
Monday 17th's follow through signal remains valid (as long as the index holds above 7763).
The intermediate cycle is down; a rise above 8552 will signal a reversal; a fall below 7903 will signal continuation.
The primary trend is down.
The Nasdaq Composite formed an open-close reversal: the index gapped up at the opening to reach a high of 1430, but retreated sharply to close only 6 points up at 1389.
The intermediate trend is down; a rise above 1430 will signal a reversal.
The primary trend is up.
The S&P 500 also shows a gravestone reversal, closing 1 point higher at 879.
The intermediate trend is down, until the index breaks above 895.
The primary trend is down.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator is at 44% (April 4), after a Bull Correction buy signal.
Iraq
The market surged on news that coalition forces had entered Baghdad, but strong selling emerged before the close. (more)
The market surged on news that coalition forces had entered Baghdad, but strong selling emerged before the close. (more)
Gold
New York (17.40): Spot gold is lower at $US 323.10.
New York (17.40): Spot gold is lower at $US 323.10.
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries rallied strongly to 2942, and appears set to
test the long-term downward trendline. The index closed up 46
points, but low volume places a question mark over buyers
commitment.
The intermediate up-trend continues.
The primary trend is down.
MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) crossed to above its signal line; Twiggs Money Flow (21) is positive.
The intermediate up-trend continues.
The primary trend is down.
MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) crossed to above its signal line; Twiggs Money Flow (21) is positive.
Strategy
Short-term: Wait for a correction before taking further Long;
short if the index falls below 2830.
Intermediate: Long if XAO is above 3062; short if the index is
below 2666.
Long-term: Wait for the March 18 follow through and April 3 Bullish % signal to be confirmed by the intermediate signal.
Long-term: Wait for the March 18 follow through and April 3 Bullish % signal to be confirmed by the intermediate signal.
Burswood [BIR]
Last covered on September 19, 2002.
BIR has formed a broad base above support at 0.60. We now see a higher low at [A] after a successful test of the support level.
Twiggs Money Flow (100-day) shows signs of accumulation.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is rising; MACD is positive; while Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) hovers around the zero line after completing a bullish divergence in November.
Last covered on September 19, 2002.
BIR has formed a broad base above support at 0.60. We now see a higher low at [A] after a successful test of the support level.
Twiggs Money Flow (100-day) shows signs of accumulation.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is rising; MACD is positive; while Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) hovers around the zero line after completing a bullish divergence in November.
The daily equivolume chart shows a power box at [5], but the
breakout failed to hold above resistance at 0.77. Further
consolidation just below the resistance level or a weak
correction should present useful entry points. If the rally
surges straight ahead it may be prudent to wait for a pull-back
before entering.
The target for a breakout above 0.77 would be the 1.00 resistance level.
The target for a breakout above 0.77 would be the 1.00 resistance level.
Colin Twiggs
Opportunities flit by while we sit
regretting the chances we have lost.
- Jerome K Jerome.
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Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.