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Trading Diary
April 4, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow formed an inside day, up 0.5% to close at 8277 on lower volume.
Monday 17th's follow through signal remains valid (as long as the index holds above 7763). 
The intermediate cycle is down; a rise above 8552 will signal a reversal.
The primary trend is down.

The Nasdaq Composite lost 1% to close at 1383.
The intermediate trend is down; a rise above 1425 will signal a reversal.
The primary trend is up.

The S&P 500 edged up 2 points to close at 878.
The intermediate trend is down, until the index breaks above 895.
The primary trend is down.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator has reversed upwards to 44% (April 3), completing a Bull Correction buy signal. 


Iraq 
Oil prices fall as coalition forces make further progress. Brent Crude is down 4% at $24.45 per barrel. (more)

Unemployment
The market remains focused on the war and shrugged off weak employment figures. (more)




Gold
New York (15.30): Spot gold closed at $US 325.20.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries is close to resistance at 2920. A rise above this level will most likely break the long-term downward trendline as well. The index closed up 49 points at 2896 on low volume.
The intermediate up-trend continues, but a lack of volume on the last bar indicates that the latest rally is tentative. 
The primary trend is down.

MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) crossed to above its signal line; Twiggs Money Flow (21) signals distribution.





Strategy
Short-term: L long if XAO remains above 2875; short if the index falls below 2830.
Intermediate: Long if XAO is above 3062; short if the index is below 2666.
Long-term: Wait for the March 18 follow through to be confirmed by the intermediate signal.


Sector Analysis
Changes are highlighted in bold.
  • Energy [XEJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
  • Materials [XMJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Industrials [XNJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
  • Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 1 (RS is level)
  • Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 4 (RS is level)
  • Health Care [XHJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
  • Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 3 (RS is falling)
  • Financial excl. Property Trusts [XXJ] - stage 4 (RS is rising)
  • Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
  • Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
  • Utilities [XUJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
Sector Comparison Chart: Financials-X-Property and Consumer Discretionary are showing signs of recovery; Information Technology is still weak.





Sectors: Relative Strength
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) returned 67 stocks (compared to 99 on August 23, 2002; and 8 on March 14, 2003). Banks were most prominent:
  • Banks (8)
  • REITs (5)
  • Diversified Metals & Mining (4)
  • Agricultural Products (3)
  • Broadcasting & TV (3)
  • Diversified Commercial (3)
  • Diversified Financial (3)





For further guidance see Understanding the Trading Diary.
Colin Twiggs


The better part of valor is discretion.

- William Shakespeare: Henry IV.







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