Daylight Saving ends 30 March 2003

As of 3.00am AEST, Sunday 30 March 2003, Daylight Saving ends in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania and the ACT.

Market hours remain unchanged in these states, but will commence one hour later in all other states


Trading Diary
March 28, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow formed an inside day, closing down 0.7% at 8145 on lower volume.
Monday 17th's follow through signal remains valid so long as the index holds above 7763. 
The intermediate cycle is down, although the trendline has been broken.
The primary trend is down.

The Nasdaq Composite closed down 1% at 1369.
The intermediate trend is down, despite the large correction.
The primary trend is up.

The S&P 500 formed an inside day, down 5 points at 863.
The intermediate trend is down, but the trendline has been broken.
The primary trend is down.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator remains at 36% (March 27).


First-quarter earnings
Apart from the Energy sector, which has benefited from higher oil prices, corporate earnings show almost zero growth. (more)




Gold
New York (17.00): Spot gold closed up 330 cents at $US 331.50.



ASX Australia
The intermediate rally on the All Ordinaries is losing momentum. The index closed up 5 points at 2861 on very high volume, forming a doji which signals uncertainty.
The primary trend is down.

MACD (26,12,9) is above its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is above; Twiggs Money Flow (21) signals accumulation.





Sector Analysis
Changes are highlighted in bold.
  • Energy [XEJ] - stage 4 (RS is rising)
  • Materials [XMJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Industrials [XNJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
  • Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 1 (RS is level)
  • Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 4 (RS is level)
  • Health Care [XHJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
  • Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Financial excl. Property Trusts [XXJ] - stage 4 (RS is rising)
  • Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
  • Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
  • Utilities [XUJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
Sector Comparison Chart: Financials-X-Property has shown the largest rise in the last month; Information Technology the largest fall.


Sectors: Relative Strength
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) returned an even higher 50 stocks (compared to 99 on August 23, 2002; and 8 on March 14, 2003). Two industries were prominent:
  • Banks (SGB, ANZ, WBC, NAB and BOQ)
  • REITs (ADB, ART, GHG, GPT, WFT, LUO, GAN, DDF and DOT)


Market strategy
For further guidance see Understanding the Trading Diary.

Short-term: Long if the All Ords rises above 2875.
Medium-term: Avoid new entries.
Long-term: Wait for confirmation of the bottom reversal signal.

Colin Twiggs


Nothing is so exhausting as indecision,
and nothing is so futile.

- Bertrand Russell.







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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.