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Trading Diary
February 10, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




 
USA
The Dow closed up 0.7% at 7920 on average volume. 
The index appears headed for a re-test of support at 7500.
The primary trend is down.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 14 points to close at 1296. 
The next major support level is at 1200.
The primary trend is up (the last low was 1108, the last high 1521).

The S&P 500 closed up 6 points at 835.
The index has formed a base between 768 and 964 but appears headed for a re-test of the support level.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator remains at 46% (February 7).
Iraq
Iraq's U.N. ambassador surprised the market, saying that his country "unconditionally" accepted U2 surveillance flights, recently requested by U.N. weapons inspectors. (more)



Gold
New York (16.50): Spot gold dipped to $US 362.30.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries closed down 16 points at 2870 on low volume, above the 2850 support level.

Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) crossed to above its signal line; MACD (26,12,9) is below; Twiggs Money Flow signals distribution.





News Corporation [NCP]
Last covered on January 29, 2003.
NCP completed a double bottom at [4] and [5] but was followed by a double top at [6] and [7].

Twiggs Money Flow signals distribution; and MACD is bearish.



The daily chart shows the double top completed at [9], followed by a break below the 11.00 support level at [11].

Relative Strength (price ratio: xao ) is falling.





Price has now respected the new 11.00 resistance level at [12], signaling that the down-trend will continue.
The next support level is at 10.00, followed by the major support level at 8.50.






Market strategy
For further guidance see Understanding the Trading Diary.

Short-term: Avoid new entries. Slow Stochastic and MACD are on opposite sides of their respective signal lines.
Medium-term: Avoid new entries.
Long-term: Wait for confirmation of the bottom reversal signal.

Colin Twiggs


The secret of getting ahead is getting started.
 The secret of getting started is breaking your complex
 overwhelming tasks into small manageable tasks,
 and then starting on the first one.

- Samuel Clemens (1835 - 1910)







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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.