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Trading Diary
January 13, 2003
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading
and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms
and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow closed almost unchanged at 8785 on lower
volume.
The average is ranging between 8161 and 9076, at the top end of the base that has been forming since July 2002; a bullish sign.
The primary trend is down and will only reverse up if the average rises above 9076 (the high from December 02).
The Nasdaq Composite lost 1 point to close at 1446.
The primary trend is up.
The S&P 500 closed almost unchanged at 926.
The index ranges between 965 and 768, establishing a base. It has recently held above 867 and failed to re-test support at 768; a bullish sign.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator increased to 52% (January 10).
The average is ranging between 8161 and 9076, at the top end of the base that has been forming since July 2002; a bullish sign.
The primary trend is down and will only reverse up if the average rises above 9076 (the high from December 02).
The Nasdaq Composite lost 1 point to close at 1446.
The primary trend is up.
The S&P 500 closed almost unchanged at 926.
The index ranges between 965 and 768, establishing a base. It has recently held above 867 and failed to re-test support at 768; a bullish sign.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator increased to 52% (January 10).
AOL Time Warner
AOL loses Steven Case, chairman of AOL, and Walter Isaacson, chairman of CNN, within 24 hours. (more)
Gold
New York: Spot gold eased 30 cents to $US 354.10
AOL loses Steven Case, chairman of AOL, and Walter Isaacson, chairman of CNN, within 24 hours. (more)
Gold
New York: Spot gold eased 30 cents to $US 354.10
ASX Australia
After a weak counter-trend the All Ordinaries is likely to
re-test resistance at 3050. The index formed an inside day,
closing at 3043 on lower volume on average volume. The index
ranges between 2915 and 3050, forming a base. A break
above 3050 will signal a primary trend change to an up-trend.
Look for volume confirmation.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below its signal line; MACD (26,12,9) is above; Twiggs money flow is falling.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below its signal line; MACD (26,12,9) is above; Twiggs money flow is falling.
Market strategy
For further guidance see Understanding the Trading Diary.
For further guidance see Understanding the Trading Diary.
Short-term: Avoid new entries. The Slow Stochastic and MACD are
on opposite sides of their respective signal lines.
Medium-term: Avoid new entries.
Long-term: Wait for confirmation of the
bottom reversal signal.
Colin Twiggs
Chi Wen Tzu contemplated something three times
before acting upon it.
When Confucius heard this, he said, "Twice is enough."
- The Analects of Confucius: 5.19
When Confucius heard this, he said, "Twice is enough."
- The Analects of Confucius: 5.19
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Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.