2003 Membership
 
Thank you for all the positive feedback on the Forum and via E-mail.

The free trial period will run for at least 4 weeks from when the new data is introduced.
Subscription/Registration forms will be available from the start of the free trial period.


Trading Diary
January 10, 2003

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




 
USA
The Dow closed almost unchanged at 8784 on lower volume.
The average is forming a base between 7500 and 9130. Recently, it has held above 8161 and failed to re-test support at 7500; a bullish sign.
The primary trend is down and will only reverse up if the average rises above 9076 (the high from December 02).

The Nasdaq Composite fared better, gaining 9 points to close at 1447.
The primary trend is up.

The S&P 500 closed unchanged at 927.
The index ranges between 965 and 768, establishing a base. It has recently held above 867, failing to re-test support at the lower end of the base; a bullish sign. 

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator increased to 52% (January 09).
Unemployment 
Further job cuts keep unemployment at 6%; an 8-year high. (more)



Gold
New York: Spot gold gained 230 cents to $US 354.40



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries formed a doji, after testing resistance at 3050, and closed almost unchanged at 3035 on lower volume.
The index ranges between 2915 and 3050, forming a base. A break above 3050 will signal a primary trend change to an up-trend. Look for volume confirmation.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below its signal line; MACD (26,12,9) is above; Twiggs money flow is falling.





Sector Analysis
Changes are highlighted in bold.
  • Energy [XEJ] - stage 4 (RS is level)
  • Materials [XMJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Industrials [XNJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
  • Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 4 (RS is level)
  • Health Care [XHJ] - stage 1 (RS is level)
  • Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
  • Financial excl. Property Trusts [XXJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
  • Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
  • Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
  • Utilities [XUJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)

Sectors: Relative Strength
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) returned 72 stocks (compared to 99, August 23rd and 10 on October 4th). Notable sectors are:
  • Electric Utilities
  • Health Care
  • Publishing
  • Highways & Railtracks
  • Diversified Commercial
  • Construction & Engineering
  • Construction Materials
  • Diversified Metals & Mining
  • Oil & Gas Exploration
  • Gold


Market strategy
For further guidance see Understanding the Trading Diary.

Short-term: Avoid new entries. The Slow Stochastic and MACD are on opposite sides of their respective signal lines.
Medium-term: Avoid new entries.
Long-term: Wait for confirmation of the bottom reversal signal.

Colin Twiggs


The only place where success comes before work
is in the dictionary.

- Proverb from Ruth Barrons Roosevelt: Exceptional Trading - The Mind Game






Back Issues
Click here to access the Trading Diary Archives.






Back Issues
Access the Trading Diary Archives.


Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.