December holidays

The newsletter over the holiday season will cover fewer stocks
as we take a break from the pressures of the market.


Trading Diary
December 09, 2002

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .






USA
The Dow fell 2% to close at 8473 on lower volume. If the next rally fails to take out the high from December 2, we may face a re-test of the 7500 and 7200 support levels; equal highs (August 22 and December 2) in a down-trend are a bearish signal.
The primary trend is still down. It will reverse up if the average rises above 9130.

The Nasdaq Composite lost 3.9% to close at 1367. 
The primary trend is up.

The S&P 500 fell 20 points to close at 892.
The primary trend will complete a double bottom reversal if it rises above 965.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator signals a bull alert at 50% (December 06).
Snow gets tough job
President Bush appoints railroad CEO John Snow to replace Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill. (more)



Gold
New York: Spot gold gained 10 cents to $US 326.00.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries rallied in the morning, only to experience a late sell-off to close 3 points down at 2988 on low volume. The creeping up-trend continues.
The primary trend will reverse (up) if the index rises above 3150.
MACD (26,12,9) has crossed to below its signal line; Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is below; and Twiggs money flow is falling.






Market strategy
For further guidance see Understanding the Trading Diary.

Short-term: Short if the XAO falls below 2981. The Slow Stochastic and MACD are below their respective signal lines.
Medium-term: Avoid new entries.
Long-term: Wait for confirmation of the bottom reversal signal.

Colin Twiggs


Sooner or later, those who win are those who think they can.

- Richard Bach






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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.