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Trading Diary
November 20, 2002

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




Understanding the Trading Diary provides further guidance.

USA
After a one-day pull-back, the Dow rallied 1.75% on higher volume, more evidence that the trend is up.
The primary trend will reverse (up) if the index rises above 9130.

The Nasdaq Composite Index rallied 3.2% to close at 1419, again testing resistance.
The primary trend will reverse (up) if the index breaks above 1426.

The S&P 500 gained 18 points to close at 914.
The primary trend will complete a double bottom reversal if it rises above 965.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator signals a bull alert at 42% (November 19).
HP boost
HP announce fourth-quarter earnings of 24 cents per share, 2 cents above expectations. (more)



Gold
New York: Spot gold is down 110 cents at $US 317.30.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries formed a higher low, closing at 2969 on higher volume.
The primary trend will reverse if the index rises above 3150.
The Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) is above its signal line, MACD (26,12,9) is below, while Twiggs money flow signals distribution.





Coates Hire [COA]
Last covered on October 23.
COA completed a head and shoulders pattern after a stage 2 up-trend, with the head at [h] and shoulders at [s1] and [s2]. Relative strength (price ratio: xao) is falling and MACD has completed a strong bear signal [-] after a bearish divergence.




Twiggs money flow shows a bearish decline on the right shoulder [s2] and has now dipped below zero.





The stock formed an inside day at [9] after breaking below support at 1.85 on strong volume [8]. If the next pull-back (rally) respects the 1.85 support level, it will be a strong bear signal. A pull-back above 2.20 would be bullish.





If entering a short position on the pull-back, place stops a few ticks above 1.85.



Market strategy

Short-term: Avoid new entries: The Slow Stochastic and MACD are on opposite sides of their respective signal lines.
Medium-term: Avoid new entries. Use stop losses to protect yourself against a sudden reversal.
Long-term: Wait for confirmation of the bottom reversal signal.

Colin Twiggs


Protect the downside
and the upside will take care of itself.

- Donald Trump: The Art of the Deal






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