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Trading Diary
November 01, 2002
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading
and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms
and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow continues to range, closing at 8517 on
average volume, up 1.4%. A break above 8600 will be bullish and
below 8160 bearish. The primary trend will reverse if the index
rises above 9130.
The Nasdaq Composite Index resumed its upward trend, rising 2.3% to close at 1360. The primary trend will reverse if the index breaks above 1426.
The S&P 500 also ranges (between 867 and 967) closing up 15 points at 900. The primary trend is down. The index will complete a double bottom reversal if it rises above 965.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator signals a bull alert at 36% (October 30).
The Nasdaq Composite Index resumed its upward trend, rising 2.3% to close at 1360. The primary trend will reverse if the index breaks above 1426.
The S&P 500 also ranges (between 867 and 967) closing up 15 points at 900. The primary trend is down. The index will complete a double bottom reversal if it rises above 965.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator signals a bull alert at 36% (October 30).
Auto sales fall
Automobile sales are 27% below sales a year earlier. (more)
Gold
New York: Spot gold was up 70 cents at $US 318.60.
Automobile sales are 27% below sales a year earlier. (more)
Gold
New York: Spot gold was up 70 cents at $US 318.60.
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries continues to range, closing down at 2967 on
lower volume. The primary trend will reverse if the index rises
above 3150.
The Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) and MACD (26,12,9) are above their signal lines, while Twiggs money whipsaws around the zero line.
The Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) and MACD (26,12,9) are above their signal lines, while Twiggs money whipsaws around the zero line.
The long-term Coppock indicator slopes downwards below zero. An
up-turn will signal the resumption of a bull market.
AJ Lucas [AJL]
AJL is in a strong up-trend after forming a broad base over the past 12 months, reminding us of the old traders proverb: The broader the base the bigger the move. Price has now formed a pennant continuation pattern over the last 3 weeks. Relative strength (price ratio: xao) is rising steeply.
AJL is in a strong up-trend after forming a broad base over the past 12 months, reminding us of the old traders proverb: The broader the base the bigger the move. Price has now formed a pennant continuation pattern over the last 3 weeks. Relative strength (price ratio: xao) is rising steeply.
Twiggs money signals accumulation after a bullish confirmation at
[$]. A rise above 1.24 will confirm the pennant breakout.
Pennant and flag patterns normally occur mid-trend, so the target
is 1.51 (1.29 - 1.00 + 1.22).
Sector Analysis
Changes are highlighted in bold.
Changes are highlighted in bold.
- Energy [XEJ] - stage 4 (RS is level)
- Materials [XMJ] - stage 1 (RS is level)
- Industrials [XNJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
- Consumer Discretionary [XDJ] - stage 4 (RS is level)
- Consumer Staples [XSJ] - stage 1 (RS is rising)
- Health Care [XHJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
- Property Trusts [XPJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
- Financial excl. Property Trusts [XXJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
- Information Technology [XIJ] - stage 4 (RS is falling)
- Telecom Services [XTJ] - stage 1 (RS is rising)
- Utilities [XUJ] - stage 2 (RS is rising)
Sectors: Relative Strength
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) returned 32 stocks (compared to 99, August 23rd and 10 on October 4th). Notable sectors are:
A stock screen of the ASX 200 using % Price Move (1 month: +5%) returned 32 stocks (compared to 99, August 23rd and 10 on October 4th). Notable sectors are:
- Diversified Metals & Mining
- Diversified Financial Services
- Movies & Entertainment
- Pharmaceuticals
- Specialty Chemicals
- Real Estate Investment Trusts.
Short-term: Take new entries with caution. The Slow Stochastic
and MACD are above their respective signal lines, but the
Stochastic is in oversold territory. Only take entries where
stops are tight.
Medium-term: Avoid new entries. Use stop losses to protect
yourself against a sudden reversal.
Long-term: Wait for confirmation of the
bottom reversal signal.
Colin Twiggs
Thought for the Day:
Strength of mind or of character is the ability to keep one's head at times of exceptional stress and violent emotion.
Firmness cannot show itself, of course, if a man keeps changing his mind. It demands sticking to one's convictions.
Claus von Clausewitz (1831), On War.
Strength of mind or of character is the ability to keep one's head at times of exceptional stress and violent emotion.
Firmness cannot show itself, of course, if a man keeps changing his mind. It demands sticking to one's convictions.
Claus von Clausewitz (1831), On War.
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Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.