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Trading Diary
September 24, 2002

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .






USA
The Dow appears headed for the 7500 support level, closing down 2.4% at 7683 on strong volume.
The primary cycle trends down.

The Nasdaq Composite Index rallied to test resistance at 1200 before slipping back to close 2 points down at 1182.
The primary trend is down.

The S&P 500 lost 14 points to close at 819. The July support level is 800.
The primary trend is down.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator reflects a bear confirmed signal, falling to 36% (September 23).



Rates unchanged
On a split vote, Federal Reserve policy-makers resolve to leave rates unchanged. (more)




Gold
New York: The spot gold price tested the $US 328 level before closing at $US 326.10, up 340 cents.



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries closed down 13 points at 2988 on average volume. The next major band of support is at 2909 to 2940.
The MACD (26,12,9) and Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) are below their signal lines. Twiggs money flow signals distribution.
The primary trend is down.





Perpetual Trustees [PPT]
After a long stage 2 up-trend PPT appears to be forming a head and shoulders reversal pattern. A break below the neckline would have a target of 23.00 ( 36.00 - 48.00 + 35.00 ). Relative strength (price ratio: xao) has started to weaken.





MACD is negative and Twiggs money flow signals distribution. A break below 36.00 on large volume would be a strong bearish signal.






Conclusion

Short-term: Short. The Slow Stochastic and MACD are below their respective signal lines. 
Medium-term: Wait for the All Ords to signal a reversal.
Long-term: Wait for a bull-trend on the Nasdaq or S&P 500 (primary cycle).

Colin Twiggs


Thought for the Day:

 Every decade has its characteristic folly, but the basic cause is the same: 
people persist in believing that what has happened in the recent past
will go on happening into the indefinite future,
even while the ground is shifting under their feet.

 - George J Church






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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.