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Trading Diary
September 17, 2002
These extracts from my daily trading diary are
intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading
and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms
and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow again tested the 8200 support level, closing 2% down at
8207 on higher volume.
The primary cycle trends down.
The Nasdaq Composite Index is also testing support, closing 1.25% down at 1259. The primary trend is down.
The S&P 500 tested the 870 support level, closing 18 points down at 873. The primary trend is down.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator bull alert signal is at 46% (September 16).
The primary cycle trends down.
The Nasdaq Composite Index is also testing support, closing 1.25% down at 1259. The primary trend is down.
The S&P 500 tested the 870 support level, closing 18 points down at 873. The primary trend is down.
The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator bull alert signal is at 46% (September 16).
Big Mac
McDonalds stock fell 12% after warning that profits will be hurt by slow sales in the US and Europe. (more)
Back Issues
McDonalds stock fell 12% after warning that profits will be hurt by slow sales in the US and Europe. (more)
Iraq
Relief over the Iraqi announcement that they will admit weapons inspectors was short-lived as US officials discounted the move as "a tactical step" to head off strong U.N. Security Council action. (more)
Gold
New York: spot gold closed at $US 316.80, 40 cents down.
Relief over the Iraqi announcement that they will admit weapons inspectors was short-lived as US officials discounted the move as "a tactical step" to head off strong U.N. Security Council action. (more)
Gold
New York: spot gold closed at $US 316.80, 40 cents down.
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries closed up 30 points at 3105 on strong
volume, pointing to another rally. But the US market pulls in
the opposite direction. The primary trend is down.
MACD (26,12,9) and Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) crossed to above
their signal lines. Twiggs money flow signals accumulation.
Bendigo Bank [BEN]
After appearing to form a stage 3 top, BEN has rallied strongly over the past 8 weeks to a new high of 8.40. Relative strength (price ratio: xao) is rising.
After appearing to form a stage 3 top, BEN has rallied strongly over the past 8 weeks to a new high of 8.40. Relative strength (price ratio: xao) is rising.
On the daily chart, MACD is positive while Twiggs money flow
signals strong accumulation.
Conclusion
Short-term: Long if the All Ords rises above 3105. The Slow
Stochastic and MACD are above their respective signal
lines.
Medium-term: Wait for the All Ords to signal a reversal.
Long-term: Wait for a bull-trend on the Nasdaq or S&P 500
(primary cycle).
Colin Twiggs
Thought for the Day:
Don't try to pick the turning point on falling stocks, there are often several failed rallies before one succeeds.
Buy on breakouts above resistance.
Don't try to pick the turning point on falling stocks, there are often several failed rallies before one succeeds.
Buy on breakouts above resistance.
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Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.