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Trading Diary
September 3, 2002

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .






USA
The Dow fell 4.1% to close at 8308 on strong volume and appears headed for the 8000 support level. The primary cycle trends down.

The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 3.9% to close at 1263. The next support level is at 1200. The primary trend is down.

The S&P 500 fell 38 points to close at 878. The next support level is at 834. The primary cycle is in a down-trend.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator  bull alert signal is at 46% (August 30).


Manufacturing growth stalls
The ISM Purchasing Managers Index was a surprisingly weak 50.5, unchanged from July, while of greater concern is the fall in the New Orders Index to 49.7, from 50.4 in July. (more)



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries gained a further 11 points to close at 3095 on lower volume, holding above support at 3040 to 3050. The primary trend is down.
The Stochastic (20,3,3) has crossed to above its signal line. MACD (26,12,9) is above. Twiggs money flow is rising sharply.





Interest rates
The Reserve Bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged. (more)


Hardman Resources [HDR]
HDR has been trending strongly upwards, forming a rising wedge in the last year. Relative strength (price ratio: xao) is strong.





MACD and Twiggs money flow are both positive, while the stock tests support at 76 cents.







Conclusion

Short-term: Wait for the market reaction to the sharp drop in the US markets. The Slow Stochastic and MACD are above their respective signal lines.
Medium-term: Patience is required - wait for the All Ords to signal a reversal.
Long-term: Wait for a bull-trend on the Nasdaq or S&P 500 (primary cycle).

Colin Twiggs


Thought for the Day:

 The same Nature that delights in periodical repetition in the skies is the Nature which orders the affairs of the earth.
Let us not underrate the value of that hint.

 - Mark Twain







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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.