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Trading Diary
August 28, 2002

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .






USA
The Dow closed down 1.5% at 8694 on normal volume. The secondary rally may be ending, while the primary cycle is in a down-trend.  

The Nasdaq Composite gapped downwards, falling 2.5% to close at 1314. The secondary rally may be reversing. The primary cycle is in a down-trend.

The S&P 500 lost 17 points to close at 917. The primary trend is down, with a secondary correction.

The Chartcraft NYSE Bullish % Indicator  bull alert signal is at 46% (August 27).


Chip and network stocks down
Intel CEO Craig Barret's cautious outlook on the computer industry weighs heavily on the market. (more)



ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries eased after the morning session to close down 21 points at 3090 on normal volume. The primary trend is down.
The Stochastic (20,3,3) is below its signal line. Twiggs money flow signals distribution.




National Australia Bank [NAB]
NAB closed its foray into the US market with the sale of its last mortgage servicing rights to Washington Mutual, at a loss of $104 million. (more)
NAB has been wedging up for the past year, a bullish signal, with relative strength (price ratio: xao) rising. MACD and Twiggs money flow are neutral.




QBE  [QBE]
QBE Insurance reported a 6% drop in net profit for the half-year to 30 June and predict 10% to 15 % growth for next year. (more)
The stock has been in a stage 4 decline since September last year. Twiggs money flow shows a bullish divergence while MACD is positive.






Resmed [RMD]
 RMD has built a broad base after a lengthy down-trend. The 150-day moving average has leveled out while relative strength (price ratio: xao) is recovering. Twiggs money flow and MACD have completed bullish divergences.







Conclusion

Short-term: Avoid new entries. Slow Stochastic and MACD are on opposite sides of their respective signal lines.
Medium-term: Wait for the All Ords to signal a reversal.
Long-term: Wait for a bull-trend on the Nasdaq or S&P 500 (primary cycle).

Colin Twiggs


Thought for the Day:

 It is not necessary to get everything right - but it is necessary to get the right things right.






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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.