Trading Diary
July 11, 2002

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow rallied in the afternoon to close only slightly down at 8801 on very high volume.
This is a bear market, with primary and secondary cycles trending down.

The Nasdaq Composite rallied more than 2% to close at 1374.
The primary and secondary cycles are in a down-trend.

The S&P 500 gained 7 points to close at 927.
Primary and secondary cycles trend downwards.

 
Dell up
Dell Computer Corporation increased their sales and earnings forecasts for the second quarter, causing the stock to rise more than 7%. (more)
  
Bristol-Myers
 The SEC is investigating whether Bristol-Myers Squibb misled investors about the company's revenue growth. (more)
 
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries closed down 33 points at 3142 on average volume.
The primary cycle is in a bear trend, secondary cycle has completed a reversal.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has crossed to below its signal line. 
Exponentially-smoothed Money Flow signals distribution.


Health Care hammered [CSL]
A profit warning by Compumedics and the failure of Amrad's hepatitis drug trial cause a crisis of confidence in the sector. (more)
CSL is in a stage 4 decline.


Sonic Healthcare [SHL] has weak Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) and MACD but exponentially-smoothed Money Flow signals accumulation.


Peptech [PTD]
I managed to combine a news story on Peptech with a chart of Peplin Biotech - one of the hazards of working at 6.00 a.m.
PTD is in a stage 4 decline with weakening Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) and exponentially-smoothed Money Flow, but MACD shows a bullish divergence.


Peplin [PTD]
Peplin Biotech (PEP), on the other hand, shows improving Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) and MACD, while exponentially-smoothed Money Flow has swung to accumulation.


Croesus Mining NL [CRS]
The Kalgoorlie gold miner reported a record profit of $15 million.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) and MACD are weak but exponentially-smoothed Money Flow signals strong accumulation.






Conclusion
 
Short-term: Avoid new entries. The Slow Stochastic is below its signal line.
Medium-term: Wait for the All Ords to signal a reversal.
Long-term: Wait for a bull-trend on the Nasdaq or S&P 500 (primary cycle).
 
Colin Twiggs
 
Thought for the Day:
When the supermarket has a sale, buyers rush in. When the stock market has a sale, buyers run away.
 - from Robert Kiyosaki.
 
 




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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.