Trading Diary
July 9, 2002

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow fell another 1.9% to close at 9096 on above-average volume.
This is a bear market, with primary and secondary cycles trending down.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.74% to close at 1381.
The primary and secondary cycles are in a down-trend.

The S&P 500 lost 24 points to close at 952.
Primary and secondary cycles trend downwards.

 
Wyeth leads drug sector lower
Safety concerns over the group's hormone-replacement drug caused a fall to a 2-year low. (more)
  
Gold rebound
 August futures rose $US 4 to close at $US 316.50 per ounce. (more)

 

ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries closed up 7 points at 3205 on average volume. The completed double-bottom pattern has a target of 32.30.
The primary cycle is in a bear trend, secondary cycle has completed a reversal.
MACD (26,12,9) and Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) are above their signal lines. 
Exponentially-smoothed Money Flow has returned to positive territory.


 
Business confidence falls
The NAB monthly survey shows a sharp fall in business confidence. (more)
 
Portman [PMM]
Iron ore miner Portman has concluded an important native title agreement that will allow it to double production. (more)
 Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) and MACD are improving, while exponentially-smoothed Money Flow signals accumulation.


 
AurionGold [AOR]
AOR is one of the few gold stocks that continues to signal accumulation (on exponentially-smoothed Money Flow) during the current correction.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) and MACD are still weak.


 
Smorgon Steel [SSX]
SSX has signaled strong accumulation (on exponentially-smoothed Money Flow) over the last year.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) and MACD are improving.


 





Conclusion
 
Short-term: We have a signal to go long - the Slow Stochastic and MACD are above their respective signal lines. Exercise extreme caution because of the weakness in US markets.
Medium-term: Wait for the All Ords to signal a reversal.
Long-term: Wait for a bull-trend on the Nasdaq or S&P 500 (primary cycle).
 
Colin Twiggs
 
Thought for the Day

"The trend is your friend until it bends near the end" - Ed Seykota.

 




Back Issues
Click here to access the Trading Diary Archives.






Back Issues
Access the Trading Diary Archives.


Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.