Trading Diary
June 27, 2002

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow rallied 1.6% to close at 9269 on strong volume.
This is a bear market, with primary and secondary cycles trending down.

The Nasdaq Composite dipped after a strong opening but recovered to 1459, posting a 2% gain.
The primary and secondary cycles are in a down-trend.

The S&P 500 rallied 17 points to close at 990.
Primary and secondary cycles trend downwards.

 
Pfizer.
The world's biggest drug-maker plans a $US 10 billion share buy-back over the next 10 years. (more)
 
Nike
Nike Inc. reports a 28% increase in fourth-quarter profits due to better inventory control. (more)
 
Growth rate up to 6.1%
First quarter GDP grew at an annualized rate of 6.1%, topping previous estimates of 5.6%. (more)
 
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries recovered 31 points to close at 3161 on above-average volume, completing a hook reversal.
Primary and secondary cycles are in a bear trend.
Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) has moved above its signal line. 
Chaikin Money Flow signals distribution.


 
MIM Holdings [MIM]
MIM expands its gold and copper interests, acquiring the remaining 49% stake in the Ernest Henry mine. (more)
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is improving, Chaikin Money Flow signals accumulation and the MACD shows a bullish divergence.
Note the double top at [1] and [2] and the double bottom at [3] and [4], both failing to reach their targets.


 

BRL Hardy [BRL]
BRL's US joint venture, Pacific Wine Partners, has more than doubled last year's earnings performance in only 5 months. (more)
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) and Chaikin Money Flow are weak, while MACD signals a bullish divergence.


 

 




Conclusion
 
Short-term: Avoid long and short - the Slow Stochastic has moved above its signal line.
Medium-term: Wait for the All Ords to signal a reversal.
Long-term: Wait for a bull-trend on the Nasdaq or S&P 500 (primary cycle).
 

Colin Twiggs

 




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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.