Trading Diary
June 24, 2002

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow managed to stop the slide, closing up 0.3% at 9281 on strong volume.
Primary and secondary cycles trend downwards, in a bear market.

The Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.3% to 1460.
The primary and secondary cycles continue the down-trend.

The S&P 500 rallied 3 points to close at 992.
Primary and secondary cycles trend downwards.

 
Vivendi Universal
The French-US media group continues to slide, having lost more than a third of its value this year. (more)
 
Tobacco stocks fall
Philip Morris and RJ Reynolds stock has fallen after a string of awards against cigarette makers. (more)
 
10 Myths that enrich Wall Street
...and cost the average investor money. (more)
 
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries lost a further 19 points, closing at 3186 on strong volume.
The primary and secondary cycles are in a bear trend.
MACD (26,12,9) and Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) are below their signal lines. 
Chaikin Money Flow signals distribution.


 
Qantas raises earnings forecast [QAN]
Benefiting from the demise of Ansett, Qantas expects to beat original profit targets by more than 10%. (more)
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is improving, while MACD shows a bearish divergence and Chaikin Money Flow signals distribution.


NewsCorp [NCP]
 NCP continues its stage 4 decline. The measured target [T] from the "double top" pattern, completed December 2000, is $8.00. This is calculated by subtracting the distance between the peak [P] and the intervening support level [S] from the support level:
Peak [P] - Support [S] = 27.50 - 17.75 = 9.75
Target [T] = 17.75 [S] - 9.75 = 8.00 


 

Sydney Airport [MBL]
Sydney Airport has been sold to a Macquarie Bank-led syndicate for $5 billion. (more)
MBL has twice tested support at $29.10 since May. Chaikin Money Flow is improving, MACD signals a bullish divergence, while Relative Strength is still weak.


 




Conclusion
 
Short-term: Short in selected sectors - MACD and slow Stochastic are below their signal lines.
Medium-term: Wait for the All Ords to signal a reversal.
Long-term: Wait for a bull-trend on the Nasdaq or S&P 500 (primary cycle).
 

Colin Twiggs

 
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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.