Trading Diary
June 20, 2002

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow fell 1.4% to 9431 on strong volume.
The index has again broken the 9500 support level. Primary and secondary cycles trend downwards.
The Dow Transport Average is already in a bear-trend, making this a bear market.
Chartcraft's NYSE Bullish % Indicator has given a bull correction signal, warning investors to adopt defensive strategies. 

The Nasdaq Composite dropped more than 2% to close at 1464.
The primary cycle and secondary cycle are in a down-trend.

The S&P 500 lost 13 points to close at 1006.
Primary and secondary cycles trend downwards.

 
Bear Market
Buyers are scarce as Dow stalwarts, including IBM and General Motors, are sold down. Triple-witching on Friday will add further volatility. (more)
 
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries rallied strongly, after a sharp decline in the morning, to close unchanged at 3231.
Chaikin Money Flow made a strong recovery, because of the strong close and large volume.


 
Banks
RBA credit card reforms may reduce the profitability of card operations by 20%, but only marginally affect overall profits of the big four. (more)
Financials excluding Property Trusts (XXJ), the new ASX 200 index, reflects positive Relative Strength (price ratio: xjo) and Chaikin Money Flow. MACD signals a bearish divergence. 


 

AurionGold [AOR]
AOR increases its estimates of gold reserves by 25%. (more)
Detrended Price Oscillator and Chaikin Money Flow give positive signals.


 

 
Sectors: Gold
The primary bull-trend continues. Short-term: The Detrended Price Oscillator is positive but Chaikin MF continues downward.
 




Conclusion
 
Short-term: No short trades until completion of MACD/Slow Stochastic signal - selected sectors only.
Medium-term: Wait for the All Ords to signal a reversal.
Long-term: Wait for a bull-trend on the Nasdaq or S&P 500 (primary cycle).
 

Colin Twiggs

 
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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.