Trading Diary
June 13, 2002

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow again tested the 9500 support level, closing down 1.2% at 9502 on average volume.
A break below this level will complete a broad head and shoulders pattern and signal a primary bear-trend.
Chartcraft's NYSE Bullish % Indicator has given a bull correction signal, warning investors to adopt defensive strategies. 

The Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.5% at 1496.
The primary and secondary cycles trend downwards.

The S&P 500 was down 11 points at 1009.
Primary and secondary cycles trend downwards.

 
Retail Sales
May retail sales fell 0.9% against an expected 0.1% rise, with Automobile sales (-2.5%) and gas station sales (-3.1%) leading the decline. (more)
 
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries fell to 3265 on normal volume.
Chaikin Money Flow has turned down, signaling distribution.
A break below support at 3250 will signal the start of a primary bear trend.
MACD (26,12,9) and Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) are below their signal lines.


 
Computershare [CPU]
Further speculation as to the large buyer on Wednesday night. (more)
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) and Chaikin Money Flow are weak, while MACD signals a bullish divergence.



 

Gold
Sons of Gwalia is trending downwards. Chaikin Money Flow shows distribution.
 


Newcrest Mining shows a bullish MACD, while Chaikin MF has a bearish divergence. Mixed signals.



 





Conclusion
 
Short-term: Avoid long. Expect a reversal at the 3250 support level.
Medium-term: Wait for the All Ords to signal a secondary cycle reversal.
Long-term: Wait for a bull-trend on the Nasdaq or S&P 500 (primary cycle).
 

Colin Twiggs

 
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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.