Trading Diary
June 12, 2002

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow recovered 1% to 9617 on very strong volume.
Another successful test of the 9500 - 9600 support level. A break below this level will complete a broad head and shoulders pattern and signal a primary bear-trend.
Chartcraft's NYSE Bullish % Indicator has given a bull correction signal, warning investors to adopt defensive strategies. 

The Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.5% to 1519.
The primary and secondary cycles trend downwards.

The S&P 500 rose 7 points to 1020.
Primary and secondary cycles trend downwards.

 
Proctor & Gamble
The makers of Tide and Pampers raised their fourth-quarter earnings forecasts. (more)
 
Late rally
A late rally in Intel and Microsoft lifts stocks. (more)
 
ASX Australia
The All Ordinaries eased 1 point to 3277 on above-average volume, signaling accumulation.
Chaikin Money Flow continues to rise, signaling accumulation.
The primary trend is up, secondary trend - down.
MACD (26,12,9) and Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) are below their signal lines.


 
Court injunction against Foodland [FOA]
Competitor, Foodstuffs (Auckland) Ltd, last night obtained an interim order preventing Perth-based Foodland from taking further action in it's acquisition of Woolworths New Zealand. (more)
FOA  shows strong Relative Strength (price ratio: xao), Chaikin Money Flow shows accumulation, while MACD signals a bearish divergence.


 

Tabcorp [TAH]
The Victorian government doubled the limit on individual shareholding to 10% and raised the restriction on foreign ownership to 40%. (more)
TAH has broken out above resistance at $12.50. Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is strong, while MACD and Chaikin Money Flow have recovered.


 

Gold
XGO continues to weaken.
 


Sectors: Tourism & Leisure
 The XTU index is in the middle of a bull trend, largely due to the Casinos & Gaming sector.
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao), MACD and Chaikin Money Flow are strong.


 





Conclusion
 
Short-term: Avoid long. Expect a reversal shortly.
Medium-term: Wait for the All Ords to signal a secondary cycle reversal.
Long-term: Wait for a bull-trend on the Nasdaq or S&P 500 (primary cycle).
 

Colin Twiggs

 
Please forward this to your friends and colleagues.




Back Issues
Click here to access the Trading Diary Archives.






Back Issues
Access the Trading Diary Archives.


Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.