Trading Diary
June 6, 2002

These extracts from my daily trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use .




USA
The Dow fell 1.75% to 9624 on strong volume. 
A break below 9500 will signal a primary bear-trend. The secondary cycle trends downwards.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.5% to 1554.
The primary and secondary cycles trend downwards.

The S&P 500 fell 2.0% to close 20 points down at 1029.
Primary and secondary cycles trend downwards.

 
Intel sparks chip sell-off
Intel lowers its second-quarter revenue estimates because of soft European sales. (more)
 
Oil down, gold up
Crude futures continued a 10-session losing streak while August gold futures rallied to close at $US 325.80 per ounce. (more)
 
ASX Australia
The All Ords lost 4 points to close at 3299 on strong volume.
The primary trend is up, secondary trend - down. A break above 3370 would complete an inverted head and shoulders pattern.
MACD (26,12,9) and Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) are below their signal lines.


 
Flight Centre [FLT]
Flight Centre forecasts a 30% increase in 2002 annual profit, despite difficult trading conditions. (more)
FLT has broken through resistance at $28.00 with Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) trending upwards.
MACD is recovering while Chaikin MF is fairly weak, despite having crossed into positive territory.



 
Coles breakup? [CML]
External advisers are investigating the spin-off of non-performing assets such as Myer Grace Bros. department stores. (more)
CML: Relative Strength (price ratio: xao), Chaikin MF and MACD all show weakness.


 




Conclusion
 
Short-term: Avoid long. Maintain tight stop-losses.
Medium-term: Wait for the All Ords to signal a reversal.
Long-term: Wait for a bull-trend on the Nasdaq or S&P 500 (primary cycle).
 

Colin Twiggs

 
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Colin Twiggs

Author: Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.

He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.