Trading Diary
June 5, 2002
These extracts from my daily
trading diary are intended to illustrate the techniques used in
short-term trading and should not be interpreted as investment
advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms
of Use .
USA
The Dow rallied more than 1% to 9796 on
above-average volume.
The primary trend is up, but a break below 9500 will signal a
bear-trend, while the secondary cycle trends downwards.
The Nasdaq Composite rose more than 1% to
1595.
The primary and secondary cycles continue to trend
downwards.
The S&P 500 recoverd 9 points to
1049.
The primary and secondary cycles trend downwards.
Wal-Mart sales are up
Wal-Mart reported a 6.2%
increase in May sales on a same-store basis (excluding new store
openings or closures). (more)
Service economy expanding
The Institute of Supply
Management reported that its May US non-manufacturing index
jumped to 60.1, from 55.3 in April . (more)
ASX Australia
The All Ords recovered by 3 points to 3004 on
strong volume.
MACD (26,12,9) and Slow Stochastic (20,3,3) are
below their signal lines.
Danone buys into dairy [NFD]
French dairy group Danone pays $102 million
for 10.1 per cent of National Foods. (more)
NFD has climbed steeply over the last year
but lately seems to have leveled off, with Relative Strength
(price ratio: xao) failing to hold above zero.
Arnotts snack [SFL]
Arnotts launched a $260
million takeover bid for Snack Foods Limited, makers of Dick
Smiths biscuits and CCs. (more)
SFL closed at $2.03. Relative Strength (price
ratio: xao) is positive while Chaikin MF has shown strong
accumulation since February.
Tabcorp [TAH]
The Victorian gaming
operator remains silent on whether it is pursuing a major UK
off-course bookmaking firm. (more)
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) is
positive and Chaikin MF shows strong accumulation over the last
4 months. MACD and Chaikin MF now show bearish divergences. A
positive signal would be a break above resistance at $12.45,
negative would be a break below support at $11.80.
Adultshop [ASC]
ASC recently broke out above resistance at 29
cents and is about to test support at this same level. Chaikin
MF has shown strong accumulation over the last 8 months while
Relative Strength (price ratio: xao) and MACD are
strong.
Conclusion
Short-term: Avoid long. Maintain tight
stop-losses.
Medium-term: Wait for the All Ords to signal
a reversal.
Long-term: Wait for a bull-trend on the
Nasdaq or S&P 500 (primary cycle).
Colin Twiggs
Please forward this to your friends and
colleagues.
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